NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 1 Include Cowboys, Broncos

There’s plenty of value to be had when making picks for Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season. A couple of playoff contenders are getting at least three points, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds, and the defending Super Bowl champions aren’t even favored at home.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season:

Philadelphia Eagles (PK)

The betting line for Thursday night’s NFL season opener plummeted when it was announced that Nick Foles would start at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz. The defending champs opened as 5.5-point favorites at home against the Atlanta Falcons, according to OddsShark, but the point spread fell all the way to a pick’em 24 hours before kickoff.

Even though Wentz certainly gives the Eagles a better chance to win than Foles, the backup quarterback defeated the New England Patriots and was named the Super Bowl MVP when he last played a meaningful game. Don’t put too much stock into the preseason and Philadelphia’s inability to score with Foles under center. He had a passer rating better than 100 in all three of his playoff starts.

Philadelphia’s defense could be just as good as it was a year ago when it ranked fourth in both yards and points allowed. The unit led the way when Philadelphia beat Atlanta in a low-scoring playoff game last season. Foles doesn't have to be great for the Eagles to win, and getting the champs as a pick'em at home is a gift you shouldn't pass up.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

This is more of a pick against the Indianapolis Colts than it is one for the Bengals. Indianapolis has a chance to be one of the worst teams in the AFC, yet they are favored by a field goal against a team that does have some talent.

A lot is riding on the surgically repaired shoulder of Andrew Luck, which hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass since the 2016 season. The quarterback was limited to short passes in the preseason, and he’ll be going up against one of the league’s best defensive lines when he finally plays a meaningful game. The Colts have some question marks on the offensive line that could be exposed in Week 1.

Of course, the 2016 version of Luck still might not be enough for Indianapolis to start the year with a victory. The quarterback is 10-12 in his last 22 starts, stuck with a defense that ranked 26th and 30th in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The Colts were 30th in both total yards allowed and opponents’ yards per play last season. The unit could struggle Sunday when facing an improved offensive line and the likes of A.J. Green and Joe Mixon.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5)

After the Chiefs lost quarterback Alex Smith and cornerback Marcus Peters in the offseason, the Los Angeles Chargers were named the favorites in the AFC West. L.A. is laying more than a field goal at home against their division rivals, though there are plenty of reasons to believe Kansas City will win the first head-to-head matchup.

A few facts simply can’t be ignored in spite of the Chiefs losing a few key players. Andy Reid remains one of the best coaches in the NFL, and he’s delivered a winning season in all five of his years in Kansas City. Under Reid, the Chiefs have covered the spread in all five road games against the Chargers and finished ahead of L.A. in the standings in each of those years.

Pat Mahomes could make a few mistakes in his first Week 1 start. The second-year quarterback will likely also create some big plays with dangerous weapons like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt at his disposal. The Chiefs can easily upset a Chargers’ team that seems to disappoint every year.

Dallas Cowboys (+3)

Despite being known as “America’s Team,” the Cowboys are being overlooked going into the first week of the season. They’ve got a strong chance to be better than the Carolina Panthers in 2018, making Dallas a good bet as a road underdog Sunday afternoon.

Much was made about injuries to the Cowboys’ offensive line in the preseason. Center Travis Frederick won’t suit up in Week 1, but Dallas will have multiple Pro Bowlers protecting Dak Prescott. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin should be good to go, and the same goes for starter La’el Collins. With Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott playing behind a top offensive line, the Cowboys will score their share of points.

Carolina is a prime candidate to regress this season. Cam Newton has been wildly inconsistent since winning the 2015 MVP award, and he’s lacking in reliable receivers. The Panthers’ front seven is their strength, though it could be neutralized by Dallas’ offensive line on the way to a 0-1 start for Carolina.

Denver Broncos (-3)

Denver should be cautiously optimistic after the organization made some important additions in the offseason. The Seattle Seahawks, on the other hand, lost several key players after the 2017 season ended, and those losses could be felt right away when they visit the Broncos in Week 1.

When safety Earl Thomas ended his holdout Wednesday and reported to Seattle, he did so as the lone remaining member of the Legion of Boom. The Seahawks’ once-vaunted secondary is no longer patrolled by Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, who were an essential part of the team’s six straight winning seasons. Neither defensive back played in the final seven games of last season, and Seattle proceeded to surrender nearly 24 points per game after allowing an average of 18.3 points over the previous nine contests. Now that defensive end Michael Bennett is also gone, the unit should take a significant step back this season.

Just about any defense could’ve stopped Denver’s offense a season ago. That shouldn’t be the case in 2018 with Case Keenum under center. Even if the quarterback doesn’t match the career-high numbers he posted with the Minnesota Vikings, he’s a major upgrade from the likes of Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian. Russell Wilson will bear a much greater responsibility Sunday when he takes on a potential top-five defense on the road.