NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 11 Include Colts, Eagles, Jaguars

The NFL season has moved beyond the midway point and several playoff contenders have little margin for error. Teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts are small betting favorites in Week 11, according to the Las Vegas betting odds, and a loss would make it difficult for them to reach the postseason. The Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars are underdogs desperate for a win, though it’s possible for them to pull off major upsets.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 11 of the 2018 NFL season:

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

All of the “Thursday Night Football” trends point toward a win for Seattle at home against the Green Bay Packers to kick off Week 11. Only two road teams have won on Thursday this season, and they defeated opponents that currently have just two victories on the year. The Seahawks are 5-0 on Thursdays since 2013.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been good enough to make up for his team’s deficiencies this season, especially on the road. The Packers are 0-4 away from Lambeau Field, and they’ve given up at least 29 points in all of those losses. Russell Wilson has been terrific with a 110.2 passer rating, and his offensive line has actually been decent for a change. Seattle has the No.1 rushing offense and Green Bay is 21st in opponents’ yards per carry.

Indianapolis Colts (-2)

The difference between Indianapolis and the Tennessee Titans on a neutral field is probably negligible. That makes the Colts laying less than a field goal at home a good bet, especially considering how well Andrew Luck has played of late.

Indianapolis is on a three-game winning streak with Luck looking like his old self. The quarterback has totaled 10 touchdown passes and one interception during that stretch, completing at least 71 percent of his attempts and posting a passer rating of at least 123.5 in each contest. Luck has avoided being sacked and helped Indianapolis score more than 28 points in four straight games. Tennessee has reached the 28-point mark in two straight weeks, but the Titans have recorded three straight 28-point games just once in four seasons with Marcus Mariota at the helm.

Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5)

The New Orleans Saints should take care of business at home against Philadelphia, but this point spread is simply too high. The Eagles are talented enough to keep this game within a score.

Philadelphia has played poorly down the stretch in games against Tennessee, Carolina and Dallas, racking up losses that could ultimately cost them a playoff berth. The Eagles are still playing well in certain aspects of the game and remain competitive, suffering all of their five losses by seven points or fewer. Carson Wentz has a 108.5 passer rating, and Golden Tate could play a bigger role in the offense now that he’ll have another week with the team. The Eagles will be able to move the ball through the air against the Saints, avoiding a blowout and possibly executing a backdoor cover.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

The Chargers are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and they’ll be hosting a Denver Broncos’ team that’s already out of the playoff race. L.A. should have no problem winning by at least a touchdown Sunday.

Los Angeles’ only two losses have come to the Rams and Chiefs, who share the NFL’s best record. Entering Week 11 ranking first in net yards per play, the Chargers are 6-0 against teams with a losing record. They've won five of those games by eight points or more. The Broncos are 0-3 on the road against teams that have at least three wins this year, and they’ve lost those contests by an average of 12.7 points. Denver is 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 games, per OddsShark.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are rolling with five straights wins, and Jacksonville hasn’t beaten anyone since Week 4. Don’t be surprised if both teams experience a regression to the mean when they go head-to-head.

The Jaguars managed to beat the Steelers twice at Heinz Field last season. Jacksonville’s defense has certainly taken a step back, but the unit still has plenty of talent. Blake Bortles has actually been good at home, overall, and he had arguably the best game of his career in Week 2 against the Patriots. Maybe he’ll step up in a game the Jaguars absolutely have to win. Every Steelers’ road game has been relatively close with Pittsburgh never winning by more than a touchdown.

Season Record: 25-21-4