NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 2 Include Steelers, Patriots

Risking your money on road favorites isn’t often the way to go, but it can be a smart move if some of the best teams in football are being undervalued. The defending champion Eagles aren’t laying many points against one of the league’s worst teams, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds, and the New England Patriots are barely favored on a rare occasion. A couple of home favorites stand out as smart picks, as well.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season:

Cincinnati Bengals (PK)

Are we sure the Baltimore Ravens are that much better than the Bengals? Cincinnati has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and the Bengals are an intriguing pick since they aren’t laying any points at home against a division rival.

It’s pretty apparent that Baltimore isn’t as good as they appeared in their 47-3 drubbing of the Buffalo Bills, who might be the NFL’s worst team by several miles. Andy Dalton makes plenty of head-scratching decisions, but he’s a Hall of Famer compared to Nathan Peterman. Running back Joe Mixon could be on his way to a Pro Bowl season, and A.J. Green is still a top wide receiver. The Bengals scored 31 points in a road win over Baltimore in Week 17 last season when the Ravens were playing to get into the playoffs.

Dalton doesn’t need to have a big performance against the Ravens. Joe Flacco tends to struggle in Cincinnati, where he has a 3-6 career record. Flacco has thrown two touchdown passes and seven interceptions in his last four games at Paul Brown Stadium. As one of the most inconsistent quarterbacks in the league, he’s likely in for a down week after posting a 121.7 passer rating to start the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

If you simply go by what happened in Week 1, the Kansas City Chiefs are a prime candidate to pull out a Week 2 upset when they visit Pittsburgh Sunday. But things could be very different for both teams when they meet at Heinz Field.

Kansas City was somewhat fortunate to leave Los Angeles with a 38-28 victory. The Chargers dropped a couple of wide open passes that would’ve made last week's game more competitive, and the Chiefs still allowed more yards than any other team. Kansas City’s defense seems to have as many holes as they were predicted to have in the preseason, and it’s something Pittsburgh will exploit. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers usually score a lot of points at home—they averaged nearly 30 points per game in Pittsburgh last season. The Steelers scored 21 points on the road in Week 1, despite playing in poor conditions and committing six turnovers against an improved Cleveland defense.

Just as Pittsburgh will have fewer turnovers, Kansas City is almost certain to have fewer big plays than they did in the season opener. As dynamic as Tyreek Hill can be, he’s not going to have two more 50-yard-plus scores against a tough Steelers’ defense. Expect Patrick Mahomes to look like a quarterback that’s making his third career start, at times, allowing Pittsburgh to pull away in the fourth quarter.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were easily the biggest surprise of Week 1, upsetting the New Orleans Saints 48-40 on the road. They could come crashing back down to earth when they host the defending champions in their home opener.

It’s not going out on much of a limb to suggest that Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t have a nearly perfect passer rating for a second straight week. The quarterback has his moments, but he’s spent so much time as a backup for a reason. In 14 starts between 2016 and 2017, Fitzpatrick never had two touchdown passes in back-to-back games. On Sunday, he’ll be facing a defense that held the Atlanta Falcons to just 12 points in the season opener after they ranked fourth in both yards and points allowed in 2017.

Nick Foles could show flashes of his Super Bowl MVP winning self in Tampa Bay. The Bucs ranked dead last in opponents’ yards per play a season ago, and the defense didn’t look any better in Week 1. Tampa Bay doesn’t have much of an advantage at Raymond James Stadium, where the Bucs last had a winning record in the 2008 season. The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread on the road in their last seven games, according to OddsShark, and five of their six road wins in 2017 came by more than three points.

New England Patriots (-1)

The Patriots are barely favored on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. After escaping with a victory at Gillette Stadium, New England could have an easier time beating Jacksonville on the road.

Even against a Jaguars’ defense that was as good as any unit last season, the Patriots managed to put up 24 points. With Tom Brady still at the top of his game, New England has a good chance to reach that number, once again. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey might think Rob Gronkowski is overrated, but the tight end is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the NFL when healthy. Jacksonville’s impressive defensive line will certainly put some pressure on Brady, but there were encouraging signs from the Patriots’ offensive line when they gave the quarterback enough time to throw for the majority of last week’s game against J.J. Watt and Co.

Blake Bortles and Jacksonville’s offense was able to get very little going against the New York Giants in Week 1. That probably won’t change against an improved New England defense that held Deshaun Watson in check last week. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville’s best offensive weapon, hasn’t practiced this week with a hamstring injury. The Patriots are 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 road games, per OddsShark, and it’s hard to go against Brady and Belichick whenever they are favored by less than a field goal.

Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Maybe Dallas won’t be a playoff contender this season, but the New York Giants simply aren’t a very good team. The Cowboys are a pretty good bet to defeat their NFC East rivals and cover the relatively small spread at home on “Sunday Night Football.”

Both teams are going to have trouble scoring this year. The Giants have better weapons with Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, though they can only do so much with a poor offensive line and a quarterback that’s past his prime. Eli Manning missed open receivers in the season opener, and he’ll have some bad numbers if he isn’t bailed out by the league’s highest-paid receiver. Calais Campbell had a field day against Ereck Flowers in Week 1. Things won’t get easier for the much-maligned right tackle when he has to try and stop DeMarcus Lawrence.

Dallas’ protection could certainly improve from Week 1, making life easier for Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The line still consists a couple of Pro Bowlers, and they’ll be facing a team that has a virtually nonexistent pass rush. The Giants are hopeful that Olivier Vernon, who still hasn't practiced, will make his season debut after suffering a high ankle sprain during training camp. Without Vernon, Connor Barwin had the most sacks in 2017 of anyone on the active roster with five, and no one else on New York’s defense had more than two sacks a year ago.