NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 4 Include Cowboys, Jaguars, Titans

The Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars are both looking to rebound after suffering losses as heavy favorites in Week 3. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans are Week 4 underdogs after 2-1 starts, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds. The Dallas Cowboys are home favorites coming off a loss.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season:

Minnesota Vikings (+7)

The Los Angeles Rams probably aren’t quite as good as they’ve looked in the first three weeks. Minnesota is much better than they showed in last week’s loss to Buffalo. This line should be less than a touchdown, making the Vikings an easy pick.

Look for Minnesota’s offense to bounce back after a brutal performance against the Bills, during which Kirk Cousins was under constant pressure. Center Pat Elflein will be back in the starting lineup, going up against a Rams’ defense that has some big names up front but is tied for second-to-last in sacks. Los Angeles could be without both starting cornerbacks since Aqib Talib will miss several weeks and Marcus Peters is likely to sit with a calf injury. It could be a big day for both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen if Cousins has adequate protection from the offensive line.

As impressive as the Rams have been, it should be noted that their opponents have a combined 1-8 record. Minnesota’s defense ranks in the top eight in opponents’ passer rating, rushing yards per attempt and yards per play. The unit won’t allow Los Angeles to completely dominate the way they have this year, leaving the door open for a potential upset Thursday night.

Dallas Cowboys (-3)

The Cowboys look really, really bad when they lose. That’s what happens when you’ve got an offense that can’t move the ball. As a result, Dallas has become undervalued in their upcoming matchup against the Detroit Lions, which “America’s Team” could end up winning relatively comfortably.

Even without the injured Sean Lee, the Cowboys have an above-average defense. Allowing 4.3 yards per play, Dallas is tied with Baltimore for first in the league. Detroit is only 16th in yards per play, and they’ve faced two mediocre defenses in San Francisco and New England. The Cowboys are tied for second in the NFL with 11 sacks. Matthew Stafford will face more pressure than he has all season.

Maybe Dak Prescott doesn’t have any standout wide receivers, but he does still have one of the NFL’s best running backs. That’ll come in handy against a defense that ranks dead last in the league by allowing 448 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per carry in three games. Jumping out to an early lead like they did against the Giants in their only win of the season will be key for the Cowboys, who can feed Ezekiel Elliott on their way to another home victory.

Tennessee Titans (+4)

The Philadelphia Eagles’ offense has been nothing special this season, even with Carson Wentz back under center. They won’t have an easy time winning by more than a field goal in Tennessee against a team that's been one of the league’s most impressive over the last two weeks.

It’s time to start considering the fact that the Titans’ defense could be significantly improved in head coach Mike Vrabel’s first season. After allowing 27 points in a weird, seven-hour game in Miami, Tennessee has surrendered just 23 total points. Say what you want about Blake Bortles and Jacksonville’s offense, but they were unstoppable a week before being held without a touchdown against the Titans. Now, Tennessee returns home to face an offense that hasn’t looked sharp all season.

Philadelphia is getting healthier. Running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles should be back, and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery could play his first game of the season. But Tennessee is recovering from key injuries, as well, and Marcus Mariota is expected to play a full game for the first time in 2018. A loss by more than four points at home would be Tennessee’s first since last year’s season opener. The Titans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games, according to OddsShark.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

This could be a long day for Sam Darnold and the New York Jets. Going on the road to face a Jacksonville team that’s coming off a disappointing loss won’t end well for the rookie quarterback.

Darnold has looked exactly like a 21-year-old rookie since having a strong debut. He’s thrown one touchdown pass and four interceptions in two straight losses. After missing throws left and right against Cleveland, the quarterback should struggle again when facing the AFC’s best defense. Only the Rams have given up fewer points than the Jaguars, and their defense appears to be just as good as it was a season ago. Because the unit has been so good, nine of Jacksonville’s last 12 regular-season wins have come by double-digits.

Blake Bortles has had two mediocre performances this season and one very good one. He might be primed to put up some big numbers against a defense that allowed Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield to perform well. Don’t be surprised if Jacksonville’s defense provides some scoring for the Jaguars too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)

The Chicago Bears were able to overcome their offensive deficiencies in their last two games by facing teams that also have trouble scoring. They might not be as lucky when they host the Buccaneers, who have moved the ball at will for three weeks.

Ryan Fitzpatrick’s very early MVP campaign came to a halt Monday night when he was picked off three times by the Steelers. The quarterback still managed to throw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns, likely keeping him under center with Jameis Winston eligible to play again. Tampa Bay is still first in yards per play by a good margin. Fitzpatrick and his array of weapons should be able to find at least some success against a very good Chicago defense.

Fitzpatrick doesn’t have to come close to matching his season averages in order to defeat the Bears. Even with a significant regression, he’s still much better than Mitchell Trubisky at the moment. The second-year quarterback hasn’t posted a passer rating north of 83.0 or thrown for more than 220 yards in any game, despite facing largely unimpressive defenses. Winning by more than a field goal without a defensive touchdown could prove difficult for the Bears.

Season Record: 8-6-1