NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 6 Include Browns, Patriots, Steelers

After getting off to slow starts this season, several NFL teams are looking to build off the momentum they’ve gained in recent weeks. The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers both face first-place teams following impressive Week 5 victories. The Seattle Seahawks are favored after nearly handing the L.A. Rams their first loss, according to Las Vegas betting odds, and the Cleveland Browns will have a winning record if they can secure a victory Sunday.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 6 of the 2018 NFL season:

Cleveland Browns (+1)

As hard as it might be to believe, the Browns are a good football team. They should be able to beat the Los Angeles Chargers outright to go above .500 for the first time in four years.

Cleveland is extremely close to being undefeated, losing to the Raiders in overtime after questionable late calls by the referees and losing in New Orleans because of kicking mishaps. The Browns haven’t been beaten at home, and their only victory during the 2016 season came at home against the Chargers. Sure, L.A. has only lost to the Rams and Chiefs, but they’ve only beaten the Raiders, Bills and 49ers, none of whom will sniff the playoffs.

The Browns have a defense that’s well above average, ranking seventh in opponents’ yards per play and first in takeaways. Philip Rivers has been known to make some key mistakes that have cost the Chargers in recent years. Baker Mayfield has performed better than his 81.4 passer rating indicates, and he could carve up a defense that’s 26th in opponents’ yards per play and is still without Joey Bosa.

Seattle Seahawks (-3)

All four of the NFL games played in London last year were blowouts. The trend might very well continue when the Seahawks do battle with the Oakland Raiders overseas.

Seattle has been the league’s most impressive 2-3 team, taking care of business against the Cardinals and Cowboys while almost beating the Broncos on the road and the Rams at home. The Seahawks have overcome the Legion of Boom’s destruction to remain a decent defensive team, ranking 12th in yards allowed and holding opposing quarterbacks to a 79.3 passer rating. Derek Carr makes a few awful throws each week, leading the NFL with eight interceptions, and Seattle should be able to take advantage.

Most defenses are able to make life miserable for Russell Wilson because of Seattle’s poor offensive line. Maybe that won’t be a huge problem against Oakland. The Raiders are dead last in the NFL with six sacks after trading Khalil Mack right before the start of the season. Winning by at least a field goal might not be much of an issue for the Seahawks.

Washington Redskins (-1)

The Redskins aren’t nearly as bad as they looked against the Saints in Week 5. Look for them to bounce back against a Panthers’ team that might be a little overrated.

Washington was in an impossible position last week, playing in New Orleans with Drew Brees set to break the all-time passing record. The Redskins’ secondary will perform much better against Cam Newton, who’s thrown for over 242 yards once in his last 10 games. Washington’s defense has played well at home this season, limiting Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 444 yards passing. The Colts and Packers scored 38 total points scored at FedExField.

Alex Smith should perform better after having his worst game of the season. Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson both have a good chance to play and take advantage of a Carolina defense that's allowed more yards per carry than 75 percent of the league. Washington’s two running backs are averaging a combined 22 rushing yards per game in losses and 149 rushing yards per game in victories.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Unless you think the Cincinnati Bengals are going to end Pittsburgh’s chances to win the division in Week 6, the Steelers are any easy pick Sunday. The defending AFC North champs should win outright in Cincinnati against a team that isn’t quite as good as their 4-1 record might suggest.

With Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown still leading an offense that’s one of the league’s best, it’s hard not to take the Steelers against the Bengals when they are getting nearly a field goal. Pittsburgh always seems to play well in Cincinnati, losing against the spread just three times in their last 15 contests at Paul Brown Stadium, according to OddsShark. The Steelers have only struggled to move the ball when facing top defenses in Baltimore and Cleveland, averaging 36 points against Kansas City, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

The Bengals gave up 36 points to the Falcons in their only game when facing a team that ranks in the top half of the league in terms of yards per play. The Steelers—eighth in yards per play and fifth in points scored—should play well enough on offense to support an improving defense. Pittsburgh’s defense showed signs of life by holding Atlanta to 17 points in Week 5, and it will do the same against a Cincinnati offense that’s already seen the negative effects of losing Tyler Eifert.

New England Patriots (-3.5)

This is not the same Patriots’ team that was beaten by the Lions on “Sunday Night Football” three weeks ago. New England is back to playing like a Super Bowl contender, and they’ll hand the Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the season.

The additions of Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman have made a world of difference for New England’s offense. No longer can teams double-team Rob Gronkowski and not have to worry about a wide receiver beating them. The Patriots scored 38 points in consecutive games against average defenses. New England might set a season-high in points scored when they host a team that sports one of the NFL’s worst defenses.

Good luck to Patrick Mahomes in trying to match Tom Brady. The quarterback has slowed down in the last two weeks with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. The Patriots are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games at Gillette Stadium. Don’t worry about the point spread being north of a field goal since New England has won 10 straight home games by four points or more.

Season Record: 12-10-3