NFL Picks 2018: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 8 Include Lions, Panthers, Vikings

A week after road favorites were dominant, there is plenty of value to be had when it comes to home teams on the upcoming schedule. The Carolina Panthers are home underdogs against a team that has a worse record, according to Las Vegas betting odds, and the Arizona Cardinals are getting points against a one-win team. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t favored at home, and a few other home teams can cover the spread with close victories.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 8 of the 2018 NFL season:

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

Cincinnati was blown out by 35 points in Week 7, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled out a big overtime victory against Cleveland. Those results have some believing the Bucs could win on the road in Week 8, but the Bengals remain the significantly better team.

With consecutive losses to the Steelers and Chiefs, the Bengals have proven that they are not in the top tier of AFC teams. They still, however, are a legitimate playoff contender. The same probably can’t be said for Tampa Bay, who has gone 1-3 since Ryan Fitzpatrick’s magical two-week run came to an end. The Bucs are who we thought they were before the season began: a team with an erratic quarterback, some good offensive playmakers and a horrific defense.

Tampa ranks dead last in points allowed and opponents’ passer rating. They are second-to-last in yards per play allowed. Pro Bowl linebacker Kwon Alexander is done for the season, and the Bucs allowed the Browns to score 21 of their 23 points in the second half last week when Alexander was out. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is likely to miss another game. Jameis Winston has thrown at least two interceptions in four straight games, and the Bucs won’t win if they don’t have a monster offensive performance.

Detroit Lions (-3)

The Lions have been one of the NFL’s most impressive teams after starting the season with a two-game losing streak. They’ve got a great chance to make it four wins in five games when they host the Seattle Seahawks in Week 8.

Disregard the fluky season opener when Matthew Stafford threw four picks. He’s performed like an MVP candidate ever since, throwing 11 touchdowns passes and one interception with a passer rating over 101.6 in each game. Detroit finally has a reliable running game, and it’s why they are sixth in yards per play over the last three weeks. Seattle is 25th in opponents’ yards per carry, and the Lions are easily the second-best offense, behind only the Rams, that the Seahawks have faced all year.

The Seahawks’ offensive line is improved, but it’s still not very good. That’s going to be an issue against the NFC’s best pass rush. All of Russell Wilson’s interceptions have come on the road, as have his three worst performances this season. Wilson and the Seahawks play much better at home, which could be an issue against a Lions’ team that’s already beaten Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Detroit.

Carolina Panthers (+2)

Maybe the Baltimore Ravens will win in Carolina, but they shouldn’t be favored by nearly a field goal on the road in this spot. The Panthers find ways to win, and they’ve got a good chance to remain undefeated at home.

The Panthers are 3-0 at home this season and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games, according to OddsShark. Baltimore does have road wins against the Titans and Steelers, but they were also upset in Cleveland and Cincinnati. Joe Flacco has posted a passer rating below 83.0 in three of the Ravens’ four road games. The Panthers have allowed one touchdown in the second half of their last two games.

Carolina will likely struggle to move the ball against Baltimore’s No.1 ranked defense, but Cam Newton has played well when it’s matter most, coming up big in the fourth quarter for the Panthers. The quarterback won’t be sacked 11 times like Marcus Mariota was a few weeks ago when the Ravens won as road favorites. Don’t be surprised to see Carolina steal this one in the final minutes.

Arizona Cardinals (+1)

The San Francisco 49ers shouldn’t be favored on the road against anyone. That includes the Cardinals, who won by 10 points in San Francisco just a few weeks ago.

San Francisco’s road to 1-6 has looked better than the one that Arizona has taken. The Cardinals are coming off a 35-point loss at home to the Broncos, but they should perform much better under new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Look for David Johnson to have his best game of the season now that Mike McCoy is no longer running things. The 49ers won’t get to Josh Rosen like the Broncos did since they don’t have a great pass rush and are tied for 27th in sacks.

C.J. Beathard has been a turnover machine, throwing seven interceptions in four starts. Arizona picked him off twice in Week 5. Patrick Peterson has indicated that he’s now committed to staying with the Cardinals, ending any distractions that might have been brought about by the trade deadline. Matt Breida has missed multiple practices this week, and the 49ers won’t have much success on offense if he doesn’t have a big game.

Minnesota Vikings (PK)

The New Orleans Saints barely survived on the road last week, pulling out a win in Baltimore when Justin Tucker missed his first career extra point. They won’t be so lucky when they play in Minnesota and lose for the first time since Week 1.

The Vikings should probably be favored by a field goal in this game. Minnesota and New Orleans are the biggest threats in the NFC to the Rams, who are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Vikings are back on track after an inexplicable loss to the Bills and a loss in Los Angeles. They’ve won three straight games, including two on the road. Minnesota returns home, where they’ve gone 16-6-1 against the spread in their last 23 games, per OddsShark.

New Orleans is going to score. They rank second in points per game and Minnesota’s defense is banged up. But the Vikings’ offense might be in for an even bigger night. The Saints are allowing a 112.2 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen has been the NFL’s deadliest connection this season. Minnesota has a bad offensive line, but New Orleans can’t rush the passer. Sam Bradford and Case Keenum both beat Drew Brees last year, and Week 8 should be Cousins’ turn.

Season Record: 18-13-4