NFL Picks 2019: Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 5 Include Cowboys, Saints, Steelers, Bengals

Road teams and underdogs covered the spread at an incredibly high rate in the first quarter of the 2019 NFL season. That trend won’t continue much longer. It could be a big week for a few playoff contenders that are small favorites at home on the upcoming schedule.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 5. These are the betting odds from the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest.

Seattle Seahawks (-1)

The Seahawks fell just short of beating the Los Angeles Rams in both of their matchups last season when L.A. was the best team in the NFC. Now that the Rams’ offense seems to have taken a step back, Seattle has a real chance to defeat their NFC West rivals at home Thursday night.

Todd Gurley isn’t the same playmaker that made two straight Pro Bowls, totaling 251 fewer yards from scrimmage than he did through four weeks in 2018. Jared Goff isn’t performing close to a Pro-Bowl level with more turnovers than passing touchdowns, posting a passer rating north of 80.3 just once this season. Seattle has a much better quarterback in Russell Wilson. He is playing better than any NFC quarterback. The Seahawks are 24-6-3 against the spread at night since 2007, according to Joe Osborne of OddsShark.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

With wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys, the Saints have proven they are still one of the NFC’s best teams with Teddy Bridgewater under center. New Orleans should take care of business at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday.

The Saints’ defense has stepped up with Drew Brees sidelined, holding Seattle in check and limiting Dallas’ previously explosive offense to 10 points. Jameis Winston is due for one of his multiple-interception games against a very good New Orleans secondary after taking care of the ball over the last few weeks. As improved as the Bucs’ defense might be, the team has still surrendered more than 30 points in three of their four games.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

After failing to score more than 30 points for the first time this season, the Cowboys’ offense should get back on track in Week 5. Dallas can have success against a Green Bay Packers’ defense that finally played poorly when they faced a good offense last week.

Ezekiel Elliott will bounce back after a poor performance in New Orleans, taking on a team that ranks 29th in opponents’ yards per carry. The Cowboys’ offensive line will be able to withstand a pass rush that gave Green Bay’s opponents so much trouble in the first three games. Davante Adams is likely to miss Sunday’s contest, leaving Aaron Rodgers without his most reliable option. The Packers rank 23rd in yards per play, putting them 21 spots behind the Cowboys.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

This is more of an anti-Baltimore Ravens pick than it is a pro-Steelers pick. Baltimore might be one of the NFL’s most overrated teams, and they probably shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against their top rival.

Since beating the Dolphins 59-10 in the season opener, the Ravens haven’t been impressive against real competition. Baltimore beat the winless Cardinals in a close game and followed it up with losses to the Chiefs and Browns. The Steelers have actually had the much better defense, ranking 12th in opponents’ yards per play while the Ravens are in dead last. Mason Rudolph completed 85 percent of his passes in Pittsburgh’s Week 4 win. The Steelers can pull off the upset if the quarterback comes close to hitting that number Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3)

Most of the betting public seems to be picking the Arizona Cardinals to cover the spread against Cincinnati after the Bengals were embarrassed Monday night. That’s provided a good opportunity to take Cincinnati as a short home favorite against a bad team.

Fewer people watched Arizona in Week 4, but the team wasn’t much better, losing 27-10 at home to Seattle. Like the Bengals, the Cardinals are still winless, and Arizona hasn’t come particularly close to getting a victory after their overtime loss in Week 1. Aside from Kyler Murray’s big fourth quarter in the season opener, the Cardinals’ offense has been as bad as any in the league. Cincinnati nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo on the road, so expect them to finally get in the win column against Arizona.

Season Record: 8-12