NFL Picks 2019: Chiefs Over Patriots, Ravens Over Bills Among Week 14 Best Bets ATS

The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans all play road games in Week 14 that could alter the AFC playoff picture. The New Orleans Saints host the San Francisco 49ers in a matchup that could decide the top seed in the NFC. The Seattle Seahawks visit the Los Angeles Rams in a key NFC West matchup.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets against the spread for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season. These are the betting odds from the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3)

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs came up just short in two matchups against the New England Patriots last season, including the 2019 AFC Championship Game. Kansas City should get over the hump and beat the defending champs Sunday in Foxborough.

The Patriots’ inability to move the ball is officially a major problem, following the team’s loss in Houston. New England’s offense has produced no more than 22 points in five straight games. The Chiefs have scored at least 24 points in all but one of Mahomes’ career starts. The reigning MVP is still the best player in football. Kansas City’s pass defense has actually been above average this season, holding opposing quarterbacks to an 86.1 passer rating. Tom Brady doesn’t have the playmakers to match Mahomes, who will join Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson as the only quarterbacks to find success against an elite New England defense.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

Jackson was terrific against the Patriots earlier this season. It’s been two months since any team has been able to slow him down. The quarterback should continue to look like the MVP frontrunner when the Ravens win on the road against the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo has been among the NFL’s biggest surprises, trailing Baltimore by only a game for the No.1 seed in the AFC. The Bills aren’t on the same level as the top contenders in the conference, and it’ll show in Week 14. Buffalo has one of the league’s best defenses, but they’ve had trouble stopping the run at times. Both the Eagles and Browns ran the ball with ease in victories over the Bills. Jackson and Mark Ingram could do the same. The Ravens are averaging 33.9 points during their eight-game winning streak, beating five playoff teams during that span.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

The 49ers have lost a few heartbreakers to the NFL’s top teams in recent weeks, losing to both the Ravens and Seahawks by a field goal. San Francisco could suffer the same fate in New Orleans, ending their hopes of earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

New Orleans enters Week 14 as the NFC’s No.1 seed. The Saints are the most well-rounded team in the conference, ranking in the top nine in both yards per play and yards per play allowed. Drew Brees has completed 73.8% of his passes. New Orleans has the NFL’s fewest turnovers, and the Saints protect the quarterback better than most. Don’t expect San Francisco to get the sacks and takeaways that usually make their defense the league's best. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t played particularly well in the 49ers’ toughest games, totaling two touchdowns and three interceptions against the Seahawks, Ravens and Rams.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Tennessee has a one-game lead over the Oakland Raiders in the race for the final AFC wild-card spot. The Titans should effectively end the Raiders’ playoff hopes with a Week 14 victory.

It’s time to start taking Ryan Tannehill and Tennessee seriously. The Titans are 5-1 since benching Marcus Mariota, averaging nearly 30 points per game. Derrick Henry is playing like an All-Pro running back. The offense won’t slow down against the Raiders, who have surrendered more points than all but four teams. Oakland is 0-5 against teams that are above .500, losing by an average of 18 points per game.

Seattle Seahawks (PK)

It’s a two-team race in the NFC West between the Seahawks and 49ers. The Rams should be officially eliminated from contention in the division with a home loss against Seattle Sunday night.

Los Angeles’ offensive issues aren’t solved simply because the Rams blew out the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. It was just a few weeks ago that Jared Goff had posted consecutive games with no touchdowns, fewer than 215 passing yards and a sub-70.0 passer rating. Seattle’s defense has improved in the second half of the season. Russell Wilson remains the best quarterback in the conference. If the game is close, the MVP candidate will make big plays as he usually does in primetime contests.

Season Record: 27-35-3