NFL Playoff Picks 2023: Ranking Likely Straight Up Winners, Upsets On Wild-Card Weekend
Picking straight-up winners for the NFL playoffs shouldn't be difficult for a few of the matchups on Wild-Card Weekend. In a handful of games, however, the betting underdog might be more likely to come out on top and advance to the divisional round.
The San Francisco 49ers are double-digit favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. The Buffalo Bills are also laying 10-plus points against the Miami Dolphins. The odds suggest that the Cincinnati Bengals should beat the Baltimore Ravens.
The Minnesota Vikings are short favorites over the New York Giants. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys. The Jacksonville Jaguars are also home underdogs in their wild-card matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here's a ranking of the teams most likely to win straight up in the first round of the NFL playoffs.
1) San Francisco 49ers
It would be a stunning upset for the Seahawks to win in San Francisco on Wild-Card Weekend. The 49ers went 2-0 against the Seahawks in the regular season, including a 20-point win at home. As well as Geno Smith played in 2022, he was limited to an 87.4 passer rating. Brock Purdy has been the better quarterback since taking over as San Francisco's starter. The 49ers are beating opponents by an average score of 31-14 during their 10-game winning streak.
2) Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins are probably too banged up to beat the Bills straight up. After suffering multiple concussions in a limited period of time, Tua Tagovailoa seems unlikely to play, forcing Miami to go with Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins are averaging 16.3 points per game when one of their backup quarterbacks start. Running back Raheem Mostert could be out with a thumb injury, and Tyreek Hill was limited with an injury in Week 18. Buffalo is on a seven-game winning streak, led by the No. 2 ranked offense.
3) Cincinnati Bengals
Here's another situation where the favorite is unlikely to be upset because of an injury to the opponent's starting quarterback. Lamar Jackson hasn't even practiced in five weeks. Since Jackson's injury, the Ravens haven't scored more than 17 points in any game. It seems likely that Tyler Huntley will be under center for Baltimore, making Cincinnati heavy favorites in this AFC North matchup. The Bengals cruised past the Ravens 27-16 in Week 18. Cincinnati is averaging 29.0 points during its eight-game winning streak.
4) Minnesota Vikings
Plenty of bettors will be backing the Giants in Minnesota. New York only lost by three points to Minnesota on Christmas Eve because of a last-second 61-yard field goal, and the Vikings have a negative point differential. Minnesota, however, has certain advantages that can't be ignored. Daniel Jones is making his playoff debut, doing so on the road in one of the most difficult environments for any opposing team to play. The quarterback is unlikely to best Kirk Cousins, especially now that the Vikings' defense saw him only a few weeks ago.
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The point spread would say otherwise, but the Buccaneers might have a better chance than the Cowboys to win their matchup Monday night. Tampa Bay will be playing at home with the greatest quarterback of all time under center. The Bucs already beat the Cowboys by 16 points in the regular season and have an offensive line that can withstand Dallas' pass rush. The Cowboys are led by an interception-prone quarterback and haven't been playing their best football for over a month. Look for the Bucs to both cover the spread and pull off the straight-up upset.
6) Jacksonville Jaguars
The wild-card matchup between the Jaguars and Chargers is essentially a toss-up. Week 18, however, could tip the scales in favor of Jacksonville. The Jaguars played on Saturday, giving them a one-day rest edge over the Chargers. Mike Williams left Week 18 with a back injury, and Los Angeles isn't as dangerous offensively when the receiver isn't fully healthy. Playing at home with a Super Bowl-winning head coach, the Jaguars can squeak out a win at home in what would technically be an upset.
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