NFL Playoff Picture 2023: Steelers, Dolphins, Patriots Clinching Scenarios For AFC Wild-Card Spot

In the last week of the regular season, four teams are in contention to clinch the AFC's No. 7 seed in the 2023 NFL playoff picture. Scenarios exist for the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers or Jacksonville Jaguars to clinch the conference's third and final wild-card spot.

The Patriots enter Week 18 as the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture. New England is the only team that controls its own destiny for the last postseason berth. If the Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills on the road in Week 18, New England clinches the No. 7 seed.

The Dolphins are the first team that can take advantage of a Patriots loss. A New England defeat coupled with a Miami victory would put the Dolphins in the playoff picture for good. Miami hosts the New York Jets in Week 18.

The Steelers are third in the race for the final AFC wild-card spot. Pittsburgh needs New England and Miami to either lose or tie their Week 18 matchups. Those results and a Steelers' win at home over the Cleveland Browns would allow Pittsburgh to clinch the conference's last postseason berth.

There is a scenario for the Jaguars to sneak in the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, even though Jacksonville hosts the Tennessee Titans Saturday night in a de facto AFC South Championship Game. The Titans can win the division by defeating the Jaguars in Week 18, but Jacksonvile wouldn't automatically be eliminated. If all four teams that are alive for the AFC's No. 7 seed lose in Week 18, the wild-card berth goes to the Jaguars.

The Jaguars can clinch the AFC South title and the No. 4 seed in the playoff picture by defeating the Titans.

The Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers and Jaguars all enter Week 18 with an 8-8 record. Jacksonville has the best conference record of the group, giving it the tiebreaker over all three teams. Strength of victory would give the Patriots the edge in a head-to-head tiebreaker with Miami. Pittsburgh loses the tiebreaker against the other contenders because of its 4-7 conference record.

The Steelers overcame the odds in the final weeks of last year's regular season to clinch the AFC's final wild-card spot. Kansas City blew out Pittsburgh 42-21 in their wild-card playoff game.

The team that earns the AFC's final playoff spot will visit the Bills, Cincinnati Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs on Wild-Card Weekend.