NFL Playoff Predictions 2016-2017: Betting Odds, Chances For Raiders, Packers, Patriots, Giants, Steelers And More

Even though only four weeks remain in the 2016 NFL regular season, just one team, the 11-1 Dallas Cowboys, has locked down a postseason berth. Between the NFC and AFC, that leaves 11 spots open for the playoffs with as many as 18 teams either jostling for a better seed or simply angling for a berth.

Judging by the probabilities and odds tabulated by FiveThirtyEight and Football Outsiders through the first 13 weeks of the season, several of the teams perched high in the standings appear to be locks. The New England Patriots (10-2) and the Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1), each have a better than 99 percent chance of making the playoffs, while the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders are each listed at 98 percent by FiveThirtyEight.

After that core of contenders, the Detroit Lions are next up with a 90 percent shot followed by the Atlanta Falcons at 86 percent, then the defending champion Denver Broncos at 70 percent, the Pittsburgh Steelers at 67 percent and the New York Giants at 65 percent.

Football Outsiders has similar probabilities but some are slightly different. For one, the Raiders are a bit higher at 99.3 percent, which is a 0.1 of a percentage point better than New England, while Atlanta slips a hair to 85.2 percent compared to a big plunge to 80.6 percent for the Lions. The analytics and statistics site also gives the Giants much better chances at 73.5 percent.

Clearly, some of the country’s best statisticians have found a core group of teams they believe pose the best chance of making the postseason. But the next four weeks could still see a significant shake-up to the playoff picture.

Here are our predictions for who will advance to the postseason.

NFC Predictions

Division Winners

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. Seattle Seahawks

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Detroit Lions

Wild Cards

5. New York Giants

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Out: Green Bay, Washington, Minnesota

The Cowboys have put together a special season and won 11 straight, and even though their remaining schedule (at New York, vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Detroit, at Philadelphia) is quite difficult, Seattle’s tie with Arizona in Week 7 ultimately denies it the top seed. Atlanta’s remaining schedule involves four teams who presently aren’t in the postseason (at Rams, vs. 49ers, at Carolina, vs. New Orleans), while Detroit has a rough final three-game slate of at the Giants, at Dallas, and vs. Green Bay, so the Lions and Falcons should switch places. The Giants need to beat Dallas and have the Cowboys seriously falter down the stretch for any shot at the NFC East crown, which Football Outsiders projecting Dallas to win at 97.7 percent compared to New York’s 2.3 percent. But New York also has a rough last quarter of the season, especially with two straight on the road at Philadelphia and at Washington, two division foes who will want to deny it access to the postseason.

Other than Week 16’s trip to Dallas, the Bucs have one of the easier remaining schedules, vs. New Orleans, at Dallas, at New Orleans and vs. Carolina. Some may not like this pick, but during their four-game winning streak the Bucs have taken down Kansas City and Seattle.

Green Bay seems like a major stretch, given its sluggish defense and at times struggling offense, but if Aaron Rodgers and Co. can outlast Seattle on Sunday it could set up a strong finish with matchups at Chicago, vs. Minnesota, and at Detroit to wrap up the year. Otherwise, the Packers look poised to watch the playoffs at home.

AFC Predictions

Division Winners

1. New England Patriots

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Houston Texans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

Wild Cards

5. Kansas City Chiefs

6. Baltimore Ravens

Out: Denver, Miami, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Buffalo

Week 14 could be a major turning point in the AFC. If Oakland can avenge its loss to Kansas City it could secure the AFC West title, but must also travel to San Diego and then host Indianapolis before the season finale at Denver. Meanwhile, the Patriots could slap the Ravens down the standings when they meet Sunday in Foxboro and put more pressure on Oakland. New England will have to travel to Mile High in Week 15, but then finish up against AFC East rivals New York and Miami, two teams Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has historically tortured. Like the Cowboys, the Raiders have been one of the best stories in the league this year, but New England’s experience puts them at No. 1.

Houston’s dropped three straight, but if they can silence the Colts on the road this week, it has two easier matchups at home against Jacksonville and Cincinnati. The Texans are 5-1 at home this year, compared to 1-5 on the road, and keeping Indianapolis and quarterback Andrew Luck at bay in Week 14 may be the biggest game of their season.

Pittsburgh should leapfrog the Ravens for the division lead and outright claim it in Week 16 when it hosts Baltimore. It also has a much easier regular season closer, at home vs. Cleveland. The Ravens should still make the postseason, but with a 2-3 road record, and three of their final four games away from M&T Bank Stadium, winning the division seems like a stretch.