NFL Predictions 2019: Deshaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers Are Best MVP Bets

The 2019 NFL season is just around the corner, and there’s reason to believe the player that ultimately wins the MVP award is not currently among the betting favorites.

Patrick Mahomes came out of nowhere to win the 2018 NFL MVP award, having started just one game the previous year as a rookie. Carson Wentz was on his way to winning the 2017 NFL MVP award before a Week 14 injury ended his season.

Who might be this year’s version of Mahomes? There are a few factors to consider when making an NFL MVP bet.

You might as well flush your money down the toilet if you’re betting on any player that isn’t a quarterback. Adrian Peterson was the 2012 MVP as the only non-quarterback to win the award in the last 12 seasons. With running backs considered to have less value than ever before, it’s essentially a guarantee that a signal caller will be the 2019 MVP.

Being on one of the league’s best teams is a virtual prerequisite for being named the MVP. Peyton Manning was the last quarterback to win the award for a team that didn’t have a first-round bye in the postseason, doing so in 2008 when the quarterback led the Indianapolis Colts to a 12-4 record.

Mahomes has a decent chance to be a repeat winner, but he’s not a good bet with just +600 odds. Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers don’t have much value with +900 and +1000 MVP odds, respectively.

Here’s a look at the three best bets to win the 2019 MVP award at New Jersey’s FanDuel Sportsbook:

Philip Rivers +2000

Rivers found himself in last year’s MVP conversation until a poor Week 16 performance ended his candidacy. He’s consistently among the league’s best quarterbacks with no signs of slowing down. Wentz (+1400) and Baker Mayfield (+1500) should not have significantly better MVP odds than the Los Angeles Chargers’ quarterback. That just means Rivers is worthy of a bet with three weeks remaining until the start of the regular season.

Only Tom Brady (+1200) and Drew Brees (+1200) have been better than Rivers year in, year out over the last decade. Rivers has started 16 games in 13 straight seasons. He’s thrown for at least 4,286 yards and 28 touchdowns in six straight years. L.A. has one of the most talented rosters in football on both sides of the ball. It’s very easy to see the Chargers overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, potentially giving Rivers the edge over the reigning NFL MVP.

Ben Roethlisberger +2900

The narrative is in place for Roethlisberger to become an MVP candidate. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost two of the NFL’s best playmakers in Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. Roethlisberger could be rewarded with MVP buzz for keeping the Steelers among the AFC’s best teams, and Pittsburgh has what it takes to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

The Steelers’ running game was fine last year when Bell held out, and it’s looking more and more like the Brown trade could be addition by subtraction. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will give Roethlisberger enough protection for him to keep putting up big numbers. The quarterback has led the NFL in yards per game in three of the last five years. He hasn’t posted a losing record as a starter since 2006. The Steelers are still the best team in the AFC North, and all the hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns will make a division title for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh appear even more impressive.

Deshaun Watson +3400

Watson might have the most value of any player on the board, considering he's got 20/1 odds elsewhere, per OddsShark. You can be sure that if the 2019 season were played 34 times, there’s certainly at least one scenario in which Watson would win the MVP award. All he’s done in two NFL seasons is put up big numbers, posting a 103 passer rating each year. Even as Watson’s touchdown percentage regressed in 2018, he improved by completing 68.3 percent of his passes and only throwing nine interceptions, despite being under constant pressure. Watson ranked in the top seven in yards per attempt, completion percentage and passer rating as a second-year player after starting just six games in his rookie season.

Even a marginal leap in year No.3 would put Watson among the league’s best quarterbacks. Andrew Luck’s injury concerns give the Houston Texans a real shot to win the AFC South for the fourth time in five years. If Houston ends up competing for a playoff bye, Watson will deservedly receive much of the credit.