NFL Predictions 2019: Oakland Raiders, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers Are Worst Super Bowl Bets

There is plenty of value to be had when it comes to betting on Super Bowl LIV with a few teams set to exceed expectations in the 2019 NFL season. By the same token, other teams have a much worse chance to win the title than their Super Bowl odds would indicate.

Here’s a look at the three worst Super Bowl bets ahead of the upcoming season. Betting odds are courtesy of OddsShark.

Chicago Bears +1200

The NFC North might be the best division in football. It should be a tight three-team race, yet the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have notably worse Super Bowl odds at +1800 and +2200, respectively. Chicago plays a difficult first-place schedule that includes games against the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints, the NFC’s two Super Bowl favorites.

Much has been made about Chicago’s expected regression on defense. The Bears will feel the departures of Bryce Callahan and Adrian Amos in the secondary. There’s little to no chance the unit will force the same number of turnovers. There are major questions regarding Mitchell Trubisky’s ability to be the starting quarterback of a Super Bowl winner. He had 18 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions if you don’t include his best game of last season.

This isn’t to say the Bears have no chance to win the Super Bowl. It’s certainly conceivable that Chicago’s defense will remain an elite unit and Trubisky will get better in his third NFL season. But there is absolutely no value on the Bears at 12/1.

San Francisco 49ers +3000

The 49ers haven’t had a winning record since the 2013 season. The Rams should run away with the division title, while the Seattle Seahawks remain the clear second-best team in the NFC West, despite their +3300 Super Bowl odds. There is much greater value on teams like the Atlanta Falcons (+3300), Houston Texans (+3300) and Carolina Panthers (+3500), all of whom are led by Pro-Bowl-caliber quarterbacks.

Jimmy Garoppolo has more to prove than almost any quarterback in 2019. He’s going to turn 28 years old this season and has never started more than five games in any year. Garoppolo has only thrown 12 touchdown passes compared to eight interceptions in nine games with the 49ers. His 0.0 passer rating in his preseason debut, which came less than a year after he tore his ACL, wasn’t exactly the positive sign San Francisco was looking for.

San Francisco can have a top pass rush, though No.2 overall pick Nick Bosa is still nursing an ankle injury with no timetable for his return. The 49ers’ secondary didn’t get better in the offseason after the team ranked 31st in opponents’ passer rating. Just making the playoffs would have to be considered a major success.

Oakland Raiders +6000

If you bet on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl, you are throwing your money away. The Raiders have one winning season in the last 16 years after posting a 4-12 record in 2018. With four games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, in addition to road games in Minnesota, Indianapolis, Green Bay and Houston, Oakland will be lucky if they only suffer 10 losses.

Most NFL seasons feature at least one team that comes out of nowhere to contend for a championship. The Raiders won’t be that team in 2019. You’re better off risking your money on a team like the New York Jets (+8000) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8000). There’s at least a world in which the young quarterbacks on those teams put it together and go on a run.

We know who Derek Carr is: a mediocre quarterback that’s not going to carry a bad roster very far. Oakland’s biggest offseason move, acquiring Antonio Brown, is undoubtedly a trade the team already regrets because of the headaches the wide receiver has caused all summer. The Raiders are an absolute mess and wouldn’t even be worth a bet at 100/1.