NFL Week 10 Predictions 2021: Upset Picks, Straight Up Winners Include Raiders, Panthers

Underdogs are coming off their biggest day of the 2021 NFL season with seven betting favorites losing outright in Week 9. Three favorites of more than a touchdown were defeated after the season’s biggest favorites had been nearly perfect through the first eight weeks.

Here are the best upset picks for Week 10. Betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Detroit Lions (+340) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Lions are probably going to win eventually, and this is one of their best chances to finally do so. Detroit has a significant rest advantage, coming off a Week 9 bye. The Steelers have only six days in between games after hosting the Bears Monday night.

Pittsburgh plays so many close games that it is susceptible to being upset if a few bounces don’t go its way. All four of the Steelers’ wins have come by one score, including a 23-20 victory over Geno Smith and the Seahawks. In the final month of last season, Pittsburgh lost outright as both a one-touchdown and two-touchdown favorite. The Steelers are one of seven teams averaging fewer than 19 points per game. They are one of just three teams that haven’t hit the 28-point mark.

Detroit could very well get blown out, but its chances of winning are better than the odds suggest.

Las Vegas Raiders (+130) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City continues to be overvalued. With more than half of their schedule complete, the Chiefs have not given any reason to bet them as road favorites against a team with a better record.

After losing four games in six tries, Kansas City has arguably played just as poorly during its two-game winning streak. Beating a banged-up Giants team and the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers by nine total points doesn’t mean the Chiefs have solved their problems. Patrick Mahomes was almost as bad as Jordan Love in Week 9, and he’s posted a sub-75.0 passer rating in four out of five weeks. Even when Mahomes was playing like an MVP candidate in 2020, the Raiders managed to upset the Chiefs with a 40-32 win.

Kansas City’s latest defensive improvement could be wiped away now that they’re going on the road against Derek Carr and an above-average Raiders offense.

Carolina Panthers (+370) at Arizona Cardinals

If the Cardinals are completely healthy, they should beat the Panthers by double digits. There appears to be a good chance, however, that Arizona will be without its most important players, opening the door for Carolina to steal a win.

When Kyler Murray suffered an ankle injury in Week 8, Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer reported that the sprain could take three weeks to heal. Colt McCoy led the Cardinals to a Week 9 win, and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Monday that Murray is not certain to play in Week 10 since it's a long season and Arizona wants to make sure he’s healthy. The Cardinals could take a similar approach to DeAndre Hopkins, who missed Week 9 with a hamstring injury. Week 9 losses by Green Bay, Dallas and Los Angeles could allow Arizona to keep a cautious approach.

If Murray is ruled out, the odds will move toward Carolina. The Panthers have managed to win four games this season, and they would have a real chance to beat McCoy in his second start.