NFL Week 11 Picks Against The Spread 2017: Predictions ATS, Updated Odds

Betting on home underdogs is often a sound strategy, but that might not be the case in Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season. Some of the league's worst teams are playing at home Sunday afternoon, and multiple Super Bowl contenders could be headed for big road wins.

Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 11, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

Tennessee Titans (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Titans are barely beating teams like the Browns, Ravens and Bengals. The Steelers have established themselves as the AFC’s second-best team, behind only the Patriots, with five straight victories. That includes wins in Kansas City and Detroit. Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed any offense to score more than two touchdowns in regulation, and that should continue Thursday night.

Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns

There is no mystery regarding the Browns. It’s pretty much a guarantee that they are going to lose, and the only uncertainty is the final score. Cleveland is barely competitive, covering the spread just once in the last eight games. The Browns are 4-15-1 against the spread in their last 20 home games. DeShone Kizer could have a nightmare performance against the best defense in the NFL.

Prediction ATS: Jacksonville

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Case Keenum has been everything the Vikings could’ve asked for and more with a 92.6 passer rating this season. But there’s a reason he’s been a career backup, and his luck is going to run out soon. It’ll probably start against the defense that ranks third in opponents’ passer rating. Keenum was bad against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who also rank in the top five in that category, and the Rams can pull off the upset if they get anything going on offense.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers

Don’t bet on Joe Flacco as a road favorite if he’s not facing the Browns. DeShone Kizer is the only quarterback that’s started most of the year and been worse than Baltimore’s signal caller. Brett Hundley has gotten a little bit better each week, and Green Bay can win at home if he doesn’t turn the ball over.

Prediction ATS: Green Bay

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants

It looks like some of the Giants’ defensive players have already given up on the season. Without Odell Beckham or Brandon Marshall, New York doesn’t have much talent on offense. The Chiefs are trying to get a bye in the playoffs, and they could beat the Giants by at least three scores, just like the last two teams that have visited MetLife Stadium have done.

Prediction ATS: Kansas City

Washington Redskins (+7.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Saints just keep rolling along with seven straight victories and a nearly perfect record against the spread during their winning streak. Washington is still banged up, and they’ll be hard-pressed to keep pace with one of the NFL’s best teams on the road. New Orleans’ only home loss came at the hands of New England, and they’ve won by at least eight points in their other three games at the Superdome.

Prediction ATS: New Orleans

Arizona Cardinals (-1) at Houston Texans

The Browns might be the only AFC team that's worse than the Texans. Houston is without their three best players, and they are 0-3 with two home losses in games that Tom Savage has started. Houston has never scored more than 17 points in any of Savage’s five career starts.

Prediction ATS: Arizona

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears

Chicago’s defense has a chance to keep the Bears in this game, allowing them to pull out a victory in the fourth quarter. The Lions are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the Bears, and they’ve struggled to put points on the board against good defenses like Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

Prediction ATS: Chicago

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s hard to believe that Miami found a way to win four games. They might not get one more win the rest of the season now that their defense looks even worse than their offense. Tampa Bay hasn’t been any better this season, but the best idea is to take the points in a game between two teams this bad.

Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay

Buffalo Bills (+4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Who knows what to make of the Bills now that Nathan Peterman is replacing Tyrod Taylor at quarterback? The Chargers keep finding new ways to lose games, and it’s hard to pick them when they are laying well more than a field goal. L.A. ranks 31st in run defense, and Buffalo is still among the NFL’s best rushing teams, even with Taylor on the bench.

Prediction ATS: Buffalo

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Oakland Raiders

New England is back to dominating the NFL with the greatest quarterback of all time and a defense that hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game since Week 4. Oakland’s offense has been inconsistent all year, and it won’t be able to keep pace with Tom Brady and Co.

Prediction ATS: New England

Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Denver Broncos

Denver’s offense is a complete mess. It won’t get any better against the team that ranks second in yards allowed per play. The Broncos have scored 20 points just once since starting the season with two straight wins. This is one of the few instances in which Andy Dalton gives Cincinnati the clear advantage at quarterback.

Prediction ATS: Cincinnati

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles are ready to just about wrap up the NFC East title. The team seems to be getting better every week, led by MVP candidate Carson Wentz. Dallas will be without two of their most important players in Ezekiel Elliott and Sean Lee, and they could miss another one in left tackle Tyron Smith. The Cowboys let the Packers and Rams both score 35 points at AT&T Stadium. The Eagles haven’t been held to fewer than 28 points in a game since Oct. 1.

Prediction ATS: Philadelphia

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Seattle Seahawks

The betting line indicates that Seattle and Atlanta are even on a neutral field, but the Seahawks are simply the better team. Don’t be fooled by the Falcons’ recent wins over the Jets and a banged-up Cowboys team. The defending NFC champs still have plenty of issues on offense, and it’ll show on the road in the toughest environment for any opposing team.

Prediction ATS: Seattle