NFL Week 11 Predictions 2021: Upset Picks, Straight Up Winners Include Cowboys, Jaguars

The last few weeks of the 2021 NFL season have featured a bunch of big upsets. The Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the latest victims, all losing by double digits as first-place teams.

Here are the best upset picks for Week 11. Betting odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have ridden their three-game winning streak back to the top of the AFC West. That doesn’t necessarily mean all of Kansas City’s ills have been cured, and they won’t have an easy time holding off the visiting Cowboys.

Patrick Mahomes posted his first triple-digit passer rating in over a month, but he still nearly threw two interceptions that were dropped by the Raiders’ defense in Week 10. The Cowboys have limited opposing quarterbacks to a meager 82.7 passer rating with 14 interceptions. Only four teams give up more passing yards per attempt than the Chiefs. Kansas City’s 14 sacks are the fewest in the AFC. Dak Prescott is second in passer rating and has been sacked fewer times than 31 other quarterbacks.

The Cowboys have picked up impressive road wins against the Chargers, Vikings and Patriots. Kansas City has been upset twice at Arrowhead Stadium this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+205) vs. San Francisco 49ers

The betting odds for this matchup don’t accurately reflect Jacksonville’s chances of winning in Week 11. The Jaguars aren’t a very good team, but neither are the 49ers, making Jacksonville a worthwhile bet.

Why is San Francisco a six-point favorite on the road in a game on the other side of the country? Heading into their Week 10 Monday night matchup with the Rams, the 49ers have lost five of their last six contests. San Francisco’s once-vaunted defense has underperformed, ranking 24th in points allowed per game. The 49ers only have two matchups against top-10 offenses, including a 31-17 loss against Colt McCoy as Arizona’s starting quarterback.

The Jaguars have been competitive of late, going 2-2 in the last month and challenging the Colts in a one-score loss. Jacksonville nearly upset Cincinnati in Week 4. If Trevor Lawrence can avoid making costly turnovers, the Jaguars have a real shot of winning outright.