Correctly picking straight-up winners has been tricky at times in the 2021 NFL season. The No. 1 seed in a conference has been defeated by the worst team in that conference twice in the last month, and nearly half the league has somewhere between seven and nine wins.

Here’s a ranking of the top-10 survivor pool picks for Week 16:

1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (Carolina Panthers)

Carolina has been one of the NFL’s worst teams for three months, going 2-9 since September ended. Not only do the Panthers rank second-to-last in yards per play, but their once-highly ranked defense has surrendered at least 27 points in four straight games. Tampa Bay leads the league in scoring and is coming off a rare shutout loss.

2) Los Angeles Chargers (at Houston Texans)

Excluding matchups with the Jaguars, the Texans are 1-11 and scoring 11.7 points per game. Justin Herbert is second in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Houston ranks in the bottom-five in both points and yards allowed. The Chargers are 4-1 against teams that have a losing record.

3) Green Bay Packers (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Green Bay is 11-1 in the last 12 games started by Aaron Rodgers, who might be the new MVP frontrunner. Cleveland could get Baker Mayfield off the COVID-19/reserve list, but the quarterback has been among the league’s worst starters since hurting his shoulder. The Packers are 11-1 when holding their opponent to 30 points or fewer.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)

The Chiefs are back atop the AFC standings amid a seven-game winning streak. Andy Reid’s teams rarely lose off a bye, and Kansas City has a three-day rest advantage after playing Thursday night. Pittsburgh has a minus-44 point differential for the season.

5) Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Football Team)

It was just two weeks ago that Dallas beat Washington 27-20 in a game that the Cowboys led by two scores for most of the way. The Cowboys are 4-0 against the NFC East and can clinch the division title with a victory.

6) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. New York Giants)

The Giants are 0-3 without Daniel Jones, losing each contest by more than 10 points. New York is averaging 11.8 points in its last five games. Heading into Week 15, the Eagles outscored their opponents by 46 points on the season.

7) Seattle Seahawks (vs. Chicago Bears)

Prior to their Monday night matchup in Week 15, the Bears have lost seven of their last eight games, only beating the Lions during that stretch. Chicago has a bottom-10 scoring offense and scoring defense. Russell Wilson appears to have recovered from his finger injury.

8) Atlanta Falcons (vs. Detroit Lions)

Even though the Lions are 2-1 in their last three games, this is still a game the Falcons should win. Atlanta is in the playoff race because it is 4-1 against teams that have five wins or fewer.

9) Los Angeles Rams (at Minnesota Vikings)

The Rams are a perfect 6-0 against teams outside of the latest playoff picture. Aaron Donald could wreak havoc on Kirk Cousins and Minnesota’s offensive line.

10) New York Jets (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Jacksonville has the NFL’s worst record. It's been two years since the Jaguars last won a true road game. The Jets have a win against the Texans, the only opponent on New York’s schedule that has at least 10 losses.

Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert #10 of the Los Angeles Chargers looks down field during a 49-42 win over the Cleveland Browns at SoFi Stadium on October 10, 2021 in Inglewood, California. Harry How/Getty Images
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