NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread 2017: Predictions ATS, Updated Odds

With four teams on a bye in Week 5, only one team is favored by a touchdown and three teams are favored by more than three points. Underdogs have covered the spread just 40 percent of the time in the 2017 NFL season.

Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

New England Patriots (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting against the Patriots after a loss usually isn’t a good idea, but taking the points is probably the smart move in this case. New England’s defense will improve over the course of the season. It just won’t get much better in four days. This should be a shootout similar to that of the Patriots’ last two games with a game-winning drive in the final minutes determining the winner.

Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Chargers (+4) at New York Giants

It’s a matchup of the NFL’s two most disappointing teams. L.A. and New York could both have a couple of wins, but they’ve got a combined 0-8 record because they are a pair of bad teams that find ways to lose games. Grabbing the points is the only play, though ignoring this game altogether might be the best decision to make.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Buffalo Bills (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals

After shutting down the reigning MVP on his home field, Buffalo’s defense looks like the real deal. Andy Dalton played well against the Packers and Browns, but he was bad against teams like the Ravens and Texans that can stop opposing quarterbacks. The Dalton of Week 1 and Week 2 could be back in Week 5.

Prediction ATS: Buffalo

New York Jets (PK) Cleveland Browns

The thought that Cleveland might be significantly improved in 2017 has proven to be a fallacy. They’ve got the NFL’s worst starting quarterback, and only three teams have allowed more points. New York isn’t good, but they’ve shown they can beat the league’s worst teams. The Browns are 3-13-1 against the spread in their last 17 home games.

Prediction ATS: New York

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Jaguars better hope their defense shows up Sunday because they aren’t scoring a ton of points in Pittsburgh. Blake Bortles is averaging 162.7 passing yards on 5.42 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions when playing in the U.S., and he’ll be facing the NFL’s No.2 overall defense on the road. The Steelers are a much better team at home, where Ben Roethlisberger had a 116.7 passer rating a season ago.

Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Miami Dolphins

The unknown status of Marcus Mariota makes this game just about impossible to pick. Miami might be the smart bet, considering their offense can’t be as bad as it was the last two weeks. Jay Cutler can have one of his best games against a secondary that’s been unimpressive all year.

Prediction ATS: Miami

San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have been an embarrassment on the road, losing to two good teams by a combined 65 points. They’ve been much better at home, nearly beating the Cardinals in overtime and soundly defeating the Browns. San Francisco is probably the worst team in the NFC, and Jacoby Brissett could lead Indianapolis to another win over a team that’ll be picking near the top of the draft.

Prediction ATS: Indianapolis

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

With sole possession of first place and a win on the road against the Redskins, the Eagles look like the best team in the NFC East. The Cardinals are one game-winning drive in overtime away from sitting in last place in the NFC West. Carson Palmer has been sacked more than anyone, and Philadelphia does a better job than most teams of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Sunday could be a long day for the Cardinals.

Prediction ATS: Philadelphia

Carolina Panthers (+2) at Detroit Lions

Cam Newton bounced back and had his first impressive game of the season in Week 4. Let’s see how he does against a defense that can actually stop somebody. Detroit’s secondary might be the most underrated in the league, and they could give the 2015 MVP a lot of trouble. With the betting line dipping below a field goal, Detroit is a pretty safe pick.

Prediction ATS: Detroit

Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Los Angeles Rams

Any questions regarding whether or not the Rams are actual playoff contenders should have been answered last week when L.A. won in Dallas. Sean McVay’s offense is one of the NFL’s best with Todd Gurley playing like an elite running back and Jared Goff looking like a more than competent quarterback. Seattle’s pass rush and secondary could frustrate Goff, but their struggles on offense and inability to stop the run might be their undoing. The Seahawks are 0-5 against the spread in their last five road games against the Rams.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders

The Raiders can survive the loss of Derek Carr against the Ravens. As bad as EJ Manuel might be, he probably isn’t worse than this current version of Joe Flacco. Flacco’s only good game came against the winless Brown. In his three other starts, he’s been objectively awful, averaging 4.57 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and five interceptions. Why would things get any better when Baltimore travels across the country to play a defense that’s more than held it’s own in three of four games?

Prediction ATS: Oakland

Green Bay Packers (+2) at Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay’s defense makes it difficult for them to beat high-powered offenses on the road. We saw it in Week 2 when they visited the Atlanta Falcons and lost by a sizeable margin. Dak Prescott is no Mike Glennon, and Aaron Rodgers will have a hard time winning this game if he's forced to try to win it without much help.

Prediction ATS: Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Houston Texans

As well as Kansas City has played, their luck is bound to run out eventually. They’re the only NFL team that’s covered the spread in each of the first four weeks. Alex Smith is due for a bad game. Houston and their No.5 ranked defense might be just the team to hand the Chiefs their first loss of the season.

Prediction ATS: Houston

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears

Just as Sam Bradford’s incredible performance in Week 1 was an outlier, so was Case Keenum’s career day in Week 3. The Vikings have been held to single digits in two of his three starts, and he’ll face a Chicago defense that’s played well at home. The Bears will certainly have a chance to win if Mitchell Trubisky looks anything like he did in the preseason. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen will make sure that the burden of winning his first-ever start won’t be placed entirely on the quarterback's shoulders.

Prediction ATS: Chicago

Season Record ATS: 24-39