NFL Week 5 Picks Against The Spread 2018: Predictions ATS, Updated Odds For Every Game

The upcoming NFL schedule features four road favorites and three teams laying at least seven points. Two teams are underdogs, despite having a better record than their opponent, and 12 teams enter the weekend with a winning record against the spread.

Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.

Indianapolis Colts (+10) at New England Patriots

Indianapolis will have a hard time winning at Gillette Stadium, but they’ve got a real chance to keep Thursday night's matchup close. All four of their games have been tight, including their losses on the road against the defending champion Eagles and at home against the now 3-1 Bengals. The Colts’ defense is underrated, ranking 10th in opponents’ yards per play while facing mostly quality quarterbacks. The Patriots will score enough points to win with Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon both in the lineup, though this game could be competitive in the fourth quarter.

Prediction ATS: Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes nearly had his first hiccup Monday before mounting a fourth-quarter comeback in Denver. The quarterback's first loss could come Sunday when the Chiefs are forced to play arguably the league’s best defense. After facing four teams that rank in the bottom 19 in opponents’ passer rating, Kansas City will take on a Jaguars’ defense that’s limited quarterbacks to an 81.3 passer rating and has allowed the second-fewest yards per play. Blake Bortles will put up big numbers against a Chiefs’ defense that’s dead last in total yards allowed, giving Jacksonville a shot to pull off the road upset.

Prediction ATS: Jacksonville

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Buffalo Bills

As bad a Buffalo has been, they are probably the right pick with the betting line moving past a field goal. The Bills’ defense has been pretty good since getting absolutely destroyed in the season opener. Buffalo is ninth in opponents’ yards per play, and they could play well at home against a Tennessee offense that’s been pretty inconsistent with Marcus Mariota under center. The Titans don’t have a win by more than three points. They might escape Buffalo with a victory in another low-scoring affair.

Prediction ATS: Buffalo

Atlanta Falcons (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Falcons have an elite offense to go along with an awful defense. The Steelers also have an elite offense to go along with an awful defense. Which team has the edge? Pittsburgh probably does, since they are at home, where the Steelers have won 17 of their last 24 games. Atlanta has found different ways to lose this season, and they might very well keep that up in Week 5.

Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh

Denver Broncos (+1) at New York Jets

This line should probably be closer to a field goal. Denver’s defense has been underwhelming, ranking 19th in both yards allowed per play and opponents’ passer rating. Case Keenum is playing like the backup he was before starting for the Vikings last year, and the Broncos’ rushing attack has been their one strength. The Jets are seventh in the NFL, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Darnold has a good chance to get his second win if New York can keep Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay in check.

Prediction ATS: New York

Green Bay Packers (-1) at Detroit Lions

With Aaron Rodgers still not completely healthy, Green Bay’s offense has not been overly impressive this season. The Packers are 19th in yards per play, and that’s not going to cut it in many weeks with their defense. The unit didn’t play particularly well at home against Chicago or Minnesota, and they were abysmal on the road against Washington. Green Bay has already been upset once as a road favorite, and it could happen again in Detroit.

Prediction ATS: Detroit

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Cleveland only has one victory, but they are in every game, never losing by more than three points this season. The offense is vastly improved with Baker Mayfield under center, and the defense will bounce back after struggling in Oakland. Don’t expect Joe Flacco to have another big road game now that he’s facing a team that gave both Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees trouble.

Prediction ATS: Cleveland

New York Giants (+7) at Carolina Panthers

Maybe the Giants can find a way to keep this game within a touchdown. New York is still waiting for Odell Beckham Jr. to break out. He’s got a chance to do it Sunday against a below-average Carolina secondary. The Panthers should find a way to win with Eli Manning and the offensive line playing so poorly, making this a difficult game to wager any actual money on.

Prediction ATS: New York

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is likely to win, but they are laying too many points against Miami. The Dolphins’ 31-point loss to the Patriots was an aberration, and they should be back to playing yet another close contest in Week 5. This might be a spot where Andy Dalton makes a few head-scratching throws that put the Bengals in jeopardy of being upset.

Prediction ATS: Miami

Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

The Raiders finally got a win after coming relatively close to doing so in each of the first three weeks. They certainly can pick up a second straight victory against the Chargers, who seemingly lose more games that they should win than any other NFL team. L.A. nearly blew last week’s game against C.J. Beathard and the 49ers. The defense that’s 28th in yards per play allowed could struggle against Derek Carr, who’s been very good since throwing three picks in the season opener.

Prediction ATS: Oakland

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers

It could be a few more weeks before the Cardinals get their first win. The 49ers’ defense isn’t bad, ranking 14th in opponents’ yards per play after facing four good offenses while playing at home just once. Josh Rosen only completed 55.6 percent of his passes for 180 yards in his first start. Let’s see how the rookie performs when he goes on the road for the first time in his pro career.

Prediction ATS: San Francisco

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Seattle Seahawks

At this point, it’s hard to bet against the Rams when they are laying single digits against anyone that’s not a true Super Bowl contender. How are the Seahawks going to stop the NFL’s best offense now that they are without Earl Thomas? Los Angeles had a dominant 42-7 victory in Seattle last season, so they can surely win by more than a touchdown in a year that could see them finish at least five games ahead of the Seahawks in the NFC West.

Prediction ATS: Los Angeles

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia is ready to have their first breakout performance since Carson Wentz’s return. The offense is finally getting healthy with Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup and Jay Ajayi potentially returning. Minnesota’s defense has been hurt by the loss of Everson Griffen, and the Eagles torched the secondary in last year’s NFC Championship Game. Kirk Cousins could have some success against a struggling Eagles’ secondary, but Philadelphia’s pass rush can take advantage of maybe the NFL’s worst offensive line and win by at least a touchdown. Philadelphia is 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games at home.

Prediction ATS: Philadelphia

Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Houston Texans

Despite their records, Houston is the better team at the moment. Dallas’ defense had their worst performance of the season without Sean Lee in Week 4. Things get much more difficult when they go on the road against Deshaun Watson, who is looking more and more like the quarterback that took the league by storm in the early part of last season. The Cowboys’ anemic passing offense won’t be able to keep pace with Texas’ other NFL team.

Prediction ATS: Houston

Washington Redskins (+6.5) at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are going to put up a ton of points at home on “Monday Night Football,” and the Redskins will have a hard time keeping up. Washington has played well defensively against teams that have had trouble moving the ball. Let’s see how the unit holds up against Drew Brees indoors. Adrian Peterson will struggle against the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, making for a potential rout in New Orleans.

Prediction ATS: New Orleans

Season Record: 31-29-3

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