A few teams that are favored by more than a field goal at home in Week 7 could have trouble winning straight up, let alone covering the spread. Here are the best-upset picks for Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.

Betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos (+168) at Cleveland Browns

The Browns couldn’t have picked a worse week to play on Thursday night. Dealing with injuries to a few of their most important players, Cleveland only has a few days to rest up before hosting Denver.

Cleveland’s injury luck went from bad to worse in Week 6. Starting tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. didn’t play. With Nick Chubb already sidelined, Kareem Hunt was carted off the field with a calf injury. Baker Mayfield aggravated his shoulder injury, raising questions about his playing status. All of that resulted in a 37-14 loss against the Arizona Cardinals, and Cleveland’s No. 1-ranked rushing attack was limited to 73 yards on 3.8 yards per attempt.

The Broncos only give up 3.7 yards per carry. Even giving up 34 points in a Week 6 loss, Denver is fourth in total defense. Teddy Bridgewater should bounce back from a surprising three-interception performance, and there’s a chance receiver Jerry Jeudy will return from injury. Given Cleveland's banged-up offensive line, this could be a close, low-scoring game that's decided in the final minutes.

Indianapolis Colts (+160) at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off a bye, the 49ers have gone a month without winning a game. With Indianapolis playing much better since its 0-3 start, San Francisco might be the most vulnerable favorite on the Week 7 schedule.

The Colts have played one of the NFL’s toughest schedules thus far. All four of their losses have come against teams that made last year’s playoffs. Indianapolis nearly upset the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5, losing in overtime. Carson Wentz has thrown only one interception this season, and the Colts quarterback has strung together three straight games with a passer rating north of 115.0.

Whether it’s Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance under center for the 49ers, neither quarterback has been particularly effective in 2021. San Francisco ranks 16th in both yards per play. They’ve been the definition of an average team, one that can easily lose to an opponent that is playing its best football of the year.

Carson Wentz Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz #2 of the Indianapolis Colts runs the ball during the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sept. 19, 2021, in Indianapolis, Indiana. Michael Hickey/Getty Images
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