North Carolina Polls: How Trump, Biden, Tillis, Cunningham Are Doing In The Important Swing State

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads Republican President Donald Trump in the key swing state of North Carolina, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

In a high-turnout scenario in North Carolina, Biden would win 50% of the vote, compared to Trump's 46% support, the survey indicated. In a low-turnout scenario, Biden would receive 49% support, while Trump would receive 48%.

In 2016, Trump won North Carolina over Hillary Clinton, 49.8%-46.1%.

The Cook Political Report rates North Carolina, which has 15 electoral votes, as a “toss up.”

Young people make up nearly 40% of the state's roughly 7 million registered voters. Michael Bizter, a politics and history professor at Catawba College, told NPR in August that young people could hand the state to Biden in a high-turnout election.

"If they show up at their respective political weight in this state, it makes it that much more difficult for Republicans to win statewide because they have lost so much ground among younger voters," Bizter said.

Trump may need high turnout in rural counties to win the state, with his campaign also targeting some urban areas. Trump will hold a rally Thursday in Greenville.

In the Senate race, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham leads Republican incumbent Thom Tillis.

Democrats have hoped to flip back the seat. In a high likely turnout scenario, Cunningham leads Tillis by 5 points, 49%-44%. In a low turnout scenario, Cunningham leads by 1 point over the incumbent, 48%-47%, according to the Monmouth University poll.

In early October, the Senate race was thrown into upheaval by several events. Cunningham admitted to sending sexually suggestive texts to a woman other than his wife, while Tillis tested positive for COVID-19.

It's unclear how these recent revelations will impact the race. Prior to the sexting scandal, Cunningham had a stronger lead on Tillis. A CBS News/YouGov survey released in late September showed Cunningham leading Tillis by 10 points, 48%-38%.

Tillis, meanwhile, has also faced several controversies. He had received questionable campaign contributions tied to controversial postmaster general Louis DeJoy, who served as a GOP fundraiser.

In addition, Tillis’ ex-wife accused him of “cruel and inhuman treatment” in recently obtained divorce documents.

Cunningham, 47, is an officer in the U.S. Army Reserve and is currently under investigation by the army for his extramarital affair. The Winston-Salem native graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a bachelor's degree and a law degree. He also received a Master of Science in public policy and public administration from the London School of Economics.

Tillis, 60, was elected to the Senate in 2014 by narrowly defeating incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan. Before joining the North Carolina House of Representatives in 2007, he served as an IBM executive. The Florida native graduated high school in 1978 and later got his bachelor's degree in 1996 from the University of Maryland.

The Cook Report rates the North Carolina Senate race as a “toss up.”

Asher Hildebrand, associate professor of the practice at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, recently told the Duke Chronicle that voters may hold Tillis accountable due to the Senate's failure to pass another COVID-19 relief bill.

"North Carolina voters will hold him for liability,” Hildebrand said of Tillis, citing the Senate's "abysmal response" to act on more relief.

In July, local Republican political consultant Charles Hellwig told NBC News that Tillis should run as a Trump ally.

"If you're Thom Tillis, your bigger danger is being seen as abandoning Trump. That could crater him," Hellwig said. "But I don't believe he will do that. He supports the president."

North Carolina's early voting begins Thursday.