North Korea News: Could Kim Jong Un Become More Aggressive In 2020?

North Korea could become more aggressive with missile launches and nuclear tests in 2020, as the country remains frustrated by sanctions. Pyongyang imposed a year-end nuclear deal deadline with the United States, but negotiations are stalled.

North Korea threatened a “Christmas gift” for the U.S. earlier this month, which some analysts believe would be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). So far, Pyongyang has not made good on its threat.

Scott Seaman, the Asia director at the Eurasia Group risk consultancy firm, told CNBC that Pyongyang has shot off many short-range missiles this year which could indicate North Korea’s activity in 2020.

“So I think we can well expect next year that we’ll see more tests, and of course the big question is whether we’ll see an ICBM test,” he said.

The U.S. wants North Korea to pursue a path to denuclearization as part of a nuclear deal, while Pyongyang wants sanctions relief. U.S. and North Korean negotiators last met in Sweden in early October for diplomatic talks, but discussions fell through on the first day.

President Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for a major summit in Hanoi, Vietnam in February, but no concrete agreement had been achieved on the nuclear issue.

“North Korea’s behavior since Hanoi has gotten increasingly militaristic, increasingly aggressive,” Jenny Town, a fellow at the Washington Stimson think tank told the Wall Street Journal. “They didn’t just stop developing weapons and hope that negotiations would go well.”

North Korea’s missile tests have frequently agitated other countries in the East Asia region, such as Japan. North Korea could have between 20 to 60 nuclear bombs in its possession, with Stanford University scientist Siegfried Hecker telling the Journal that Pyongyang could develop 6 to 7 nuclear bombs annually.

Former National Security Adviser John Bolton has said it’s highly unlikely that North Korea would give up its nuclear arsenal.

Democrats running against Trump have criticized his North Korea strategy, with a spokesman for former Vice President Joe Biden saying that Trump is “coddling” dictators such as Kim. If a Democrat is elected president in 2020, it's likely that a new administration would be more hawkish on the North Korea issue, making relations even tenser between Washington and Pyongyang.