Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets: Prediction, Betting Odds For 2017 First-Round Playoff Series

The 2016-2017 NBA season was highlighted by the MVP debate, which many believe is a two-man race. Russell Westbrook and James Harden put up the year’s most eye-popping numbers, trading triple-doubles on their way to the playoffs.

Which player deserves to be called the most valuable of the past year? That question might be answered in the first round of the postseason when the Oklahoma City Thunder square off against the Houston Rockets.

READ: First-round NBA playoff predictions, odds for every series

Even though Westbrook has emerged as the favorite to win the regular-season award, his team faces an uphill battle in the opening round of the playoffs. As the No.3 seed in the Western Conference, Houston is the prohibitive betting favorite over the No.6 Thunder. Bovada.lv gives the Rockets -380 odds to advance, while the Thunder are a +290 underdog.

Houston finished eight games ahead of Oklahoma City in the Western Conference standings, and they had a better record than any team in the East. The Rockets were dominant at home, winning 30 of 41 games, and the Thunder were three games under .500 away from Oklahoma City. Houston also beat Oklahoma City three out of four times in the regular season.

The Thunder certainly can’t be counted out, given the way Westbrook has carried them all season long. He set a record with 42 triple-doubles, and he’s helped the Thunder win numerous games with big shots down the stretch. Westbrook could win at least one game by himself, giving Oklahoma City a chance to keep their title hopes alive beyond the first round.

Aside from their struggles against the Golden State Warriors, the Thunder have played competitively against the NBA’s top teams. They have two wins against the Boston Celtics, as well as a victory against the San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. Oklahoma split their four-game season series with the Los Angeles Clippers, and they went 3-1 against the Utah Jazz.

Westbrook comes to play against the league’s best, and he’ll make certain that the Thunder won’t go away quietly.

Winning a seven-game series against a 55-win team, however, might be too great of a task for Westbrook and Oklahoma City to pull off. Posting 22 triple-doubles of his own while ranking second in scoring and first in assists, James Harden has been just about as good as Westbrook with more help around him.

The Rockets don’t have a “Big Three” like the Warriors or Cavaliers, and their second-best player isn’t nearly as good as LaMarcus Aldridge is for the San Antonio Spurs. But they have a good coach and an underrated supporting cast, one that will make Houston dangerous in the playoffs.

Scoring 16.2 points per game, Eric Gordon is the favorite to win the 2017 Sixth Man of the Year award. Clint Capela is third in the NBA with a 64.3 field goal percentage while adding 8.1 rebounds per contest. Harden might be the league’s best distributor, but it wouldn’t mean nearly as much if Houston didn’t lead the NBA with 14.4 made three-pointers per game.

Oklahoma City ranks second-to-last in threes made among playoff teams, and no one in the league shot a worse percentage from behind the arc in the regular season. That’s a recipe for disaster in today’s NBA, and no matter how close Westbrook might make the series, the math just doesn’t add up for the Thunder to advance.

Prediction: Rockets in seven