OzForex Daily Commentary - 08/09/2009

:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar continued to power ahead holding on to the psychological 85 cent support level to open this morning around 0.8550. Yesterdays ANZ job advertisement survey revealed a 4.1% rise in August from the previous month, the first monthly rise since April 2008. The news gave investors some confidence that this Thursday's employment report will show continued improvement in the labour market spurring the AUD higher. With the U.S on holidays it was a relatively quiet offshore session leading into today's NAB August Business Confidence release with support above 85 cents expected to hold in Asia today.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8500 to 0.8600

:: Great Britain Pound: Despite a relatively quiet overnight session on the majors the Pound Sterling remained volatile initially jumping to 1.6440 only to fall to an eventual low of 1.6325. Investors remain nervous about the prospects for the GBP ahead of this week's key data releases which kick off this evening with August House Price data followed by Industrial production and then Trade Balance on Wednesday before leading into Thursday's BoE meeting. The cross rate continues to plummet with the Aussie dollar strengthening to its highest level in over a year against the Greenback and opens this morning around 1.9100 after exchanging as low as 1.9065 overnight.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9030 to 1.9150

:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi finally broke through what had been strong resistance at 69 cents in early offshore trade after a rally in the Euro. With positive sentiment on the global recovery echoed somewhat by the ECB President Trichet the NZD took out stop loss orders above 69 cents to peak at 0.6930. Interestingly enough the NZD/USD is yet to retest the breakout level which is quite common and opens this morning at 0.6925 having held above 0.6915 since breaking higher in London. Comments from NZ Finance Minister aimed at curbing the recent rise had little impact as the market ignored the fact the move appears to be out of line with New Zealand's fundamentals.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6885 to 0.6950

:: Majors: With the U.S on holiday for Labour day currency markets remained relatively subdued overnight trading within well contained ranges. The Euro received a small boost from a fifth consecutive rise in German Factory orders and comments from ECB President Trichet pointing towards stabilisation in the global economic recovery. EUR/USD jumped from 1.4320 to 1.4360 in early offshore exchanges only to hold within this band and open this morning at 1.4330. USD/JPY continued to oscillate within 20 points of the 93 handle bouncing between 92.80 and 93.25 overnight. Following the weekends G20 meeting once again talk of a new global reserve currency has been getting some airtime, this time the UN weighing in on the debate. According to Bloomberg financial news the organisation is calling on a new currency to help emerging markets from the confidence game of financial speculation. The news exerted little influence on the currency markets as such talk has been in pla y since earlier in the year although ongoing concern about the massive U.S twin deficits is sure to keep members of the so called BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nervous about their exposure to the Greenback.

:: Data Releases:

  • AUD: Aug NAB Business Confidence
  • NZD: No Data Expected today
  • USD: Jul Consumer Credit
  • GBP: Jul Industrial Production & Jul Manufacturing Production
  • EUR: Jul German Trade Balance & Jul German Industrial Production
  • JPY: Jul Trade Balance & Jul Current Account
  • CAD: No Data Expected today

:: Note: The above exchange rates are based on interbank rates. If you are considering a transfer then please login, register or call us for a live dealing rate.

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