The 2021 NFC Championship Game is a historic matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady will go head-to-head in the playoffs for the first time with a trip to Super Bowl LV on the line.

Brady has won six championships and a victory at Lambeau Field would mark his 10th trip to the Super Bowl. Rodgers only has one Super Bowl title and appearance on his resume. The two quarterbacks have 23 combined Pro Bowl selections.

While Brady seems certain to retire with more titles than Rodgers, it’s Green Bay’s future Hall of Famer that has the edge this postseason.

The betting line favors the Packers by 3.5 points at home, according to the latest point spreads compiled by OddsShark. Green Bay earned home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by leading the conference with a 13-3 record.

One of those losses came in Tampa Bay in Week 6. The Bucs blew out the Packers 38-10. Rodgers was limited to 16-35 for 160 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. The quarterback was sacked four times and posted a season-low 35.6 passer rating.

It was Rodgers’ only subpar game of the season.

Rodgers has finished every other game with a passer rating better than 91.5. In 15 of his 17 contests, the two-time MVP has posted a passer rating north of 107.5. That includes Green Bay’s 32-18 win in the divisional round over the Los Angeles Rams, who boasted the NFL’s No. 1 defense.

Tampa Bay’s defense ranked sixth overall and has played well in the team’s two postseason victories. The unit now faces a far more difficult challenge after beating a backup quarterback and a signal-caller headed for retirement.

At 37 years old, Rodgers is coming off an impressive regular season. With 48 touchdown passes and five interceptions, he posted the league's best quarterback statistics of 2020. Despite his poor performance in Tampa Bay, Rodgers isn't expected to have such struggles in the rematch.

The Bucs know all about rebounding against an opponent that beat them handily in the regular season. The New Orleans Saints defeated Tampa Bay in Week 1 and Week 9 by a combined 46 points. None of that mattered a few months later when the Bucs outlasted the Saints 30-20 for a trip to the conference title game.

Green Bay led the NFL in points during the regular season. The Packers matched their scoring average in their first playoff game.

Brady will have to match Rodgers in order for the Bucs to pull off the upset. The greatest quarterback of all time was better than most during the regular season, and he’s been especially good since December.

Brady has thrown 16 touchdown passes and one interception during Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak. Replicating that kind of production at Lambeau Field in January might be too much to ask.

The weather report calls for freezing temperatures and a 50% chance of snow in Green Bay Sunday. Playing in those conditions is unfamiliar territory for many of Brady’s Tampa Bay teammates.

It was only a few weeks ago that the Packers welcomed an offensive juggernaut from a warm-weather city into snowy Green Bay. The Packers routed the Tennessee Titans, 40-14, as Rodgers completed 84% of his passes and star receiver Davante Adams had 11 catches for 142 yards and three scores.

Brady and the Bucs should put up a fight, but no NFC team is stopping this version of Rodgers and the Packers from getting back to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: Green Bay over Tampa Bay, 30-23

Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers is sacked by Lavonte David #54 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium on October 18, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
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