PECOTA: It’s The Dodgers And Also Rans In The National League

The strong keep getting stronger in Major League Baseball (MLB). Baseball Prospectus (PECOTA) forecast the Los Angeles Dodgers would win 103 games during the 2020 season. That was before trading for Mookie Betts and David Price.

Statistically, LA is clearly better than anyone in the National League but that will not matter once the season starts. A rookie second baseman, Gavin Lux, is also expected to help. He was hitting .392 at Triple A before a late season call up last year. Lux has had double-digit stolen bases every season.

The Cincinnati Reds invested more than $165 million in five free agents over the winter. PECOTA believes that it will help them top the Cubs and Cardinals in the Central Division with 86 victories. The Red's big three are Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama.

Castellanos batted .289 with 27 homers and led the big leagues with 58 doubles over 151 games combined for the Tigers and Cubs last season. Moustakas hit .254 with 35 home runs and 87 RBIs in 143 games for the Brewers and made the National League All-Star squad. Japanese import Akiyama is a .301 career hitter in nine seasons with the Seibu Lions. He also hit 69 home runs over the last three seasons.

The Chicago Cubs are predicted to finish second with 84.5 wins. The Cubs didn’t make any major moves since last October. Owner Tom Ricketts said he thinks Chicago is the best team in the division. He was willing to not spend any money to prove it.

Eighty-one wins are .500 in MLB.

The defending champion Washington Nationals are projected to take a fall after failing to replace Anthony Rendon at third. PECOTA picks the Nats to finish behind the New York Mets in the NL East, 88 wins to 87.

The analysts assume relievers Edwin Díaz and Jeurys Familia will resemble their 2017 selves as will free-agent signing Dellin Betances. Then, of course, 2019 happened: Betances missed almost the entire season with right shoulder and lat issues, then came back to pitch to all of two batters in September, before partially tearing his left Achilles.

Shortstop Trey Turner is Washington’s only established infielder. Eric Thames, Ryan Zimmerman and Howie Kendrick could platoon at first base. Free agent Starlin Castro is getting a long look at second base in spring training. Hendrick also covers there. Last year’s second baseman, Asdrúbal Cabrera is on third in the spring.

The Nationals opened last season with a bullpen from Hell. The club signed former Astro Will Harris and resigned Daniel Hudson, one of those they brought in to fix 2019 woes.

The Nats and Cubs will meet in a play-in game, in Washington – just like last season – if these projections are correct. If not, blame Baseball Prospectus developer Nate Silver. PECOTA was developed by the FiveThirtyEight founder.