Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors Game 5: Prediction, Odds, What To Expect From Kawhi Leonard
The second-round series between the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers has essentially been about two players: Kawhi Leonard and Joel Embiid. They have been at the center of all four contests, and the result of Tuesday night's Game 5 north of the border could, once again, rest on their shoulders.
Leonard was, by far, the best player on the court in Game 4. With Toronto looking to avoid a 3-1 series hole, the All-Star scored 39 points on 13-20 shooting. He made a few key buckets late in the fourth quarter that propelled the Raptors to a much-needed 101-96 victory.
Embiid was the star of Game 3. He dominated on both ends of the court with 30 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks in a 116-95 win for Philadelphia. The 76ers look like the best team in the Eastern Conference when the center plays like that.
The issue is those games for Embiid don't come often enough. Whether it's a knee injury, an illness or something else, the big man hasn't shown up every night this postseason. He had 11 points on two-of-seven shooting in Sunday's Game 4. Game 3 was the only time he scored more than 16 points this series.
Even in that loss, Leonard was terrific with 33 points on 13-22 shooting. He's been incredible in every game, making the case to be considered the best player in the entire league and giving the Raptors an advantage that the 76ers might ultimately be unable to neutralize.
Despite his heroics, Leonard is going to need some help if the Raptors hope to advance. His 35 points, seven rebounds and six assists on 13-24 shooting weren’t enough to give Toronto a win at home in Game 2 when Embiid had another poor showing. With four All-Star caliber players on the roster, Philadelphia has a chance to survive a down performance from their top star.
The Raptors won't win Tuesday if Leonard doesn't go for 30-plus points with a high field goal percentage. Fortunately for Toronto, getting that kind of night from the 2014 NBA Finals MVP is a given.
That's not the case with Embiid, and that could spell trouble for the 76ers on the road considering the uneven performances they've gotten from the likes of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris.
Simmons is barely a threat in the half-court offense. He scored 14 points in the series opener and hasn't had more than 10 points in a game since. The All-Star isn't even averaging five assists per game.
Harris hasn’t done much to earn himself a max contract this summer. His series-high came in Game 1 when he scored 16 points and Philadelphia was blown out. The forward is shooting less than 35 percent from the field.
Jimmy Butler is the one 76er that's come to play each night. Butler leads the team with 22.8 points and 5.5 assists per game this series. He’s even got more rebounds than Embiid.
But Butler isn't near Leonard's level. His numbers might take a hit in Game 5 as he draws more attention. Leonard defended Simmons less in the second half of Game 4, and Raptors’ head coach Nick Nurse might want to think about using his best defender more on Philadelphia's leading scorer.
That won't matter if the likes of Kyle Lowry, Marc Gasol and to a lesser extent Serge Ibaka aren't hitting shots. They've been bad for most of the series. Those players were average in Game 4, and that was enough to propel Toronto to victory.
Pascal Siakam could more closely resemble the player that became a breakout star earlier this postseason now that he's had a few more days to rest his injured calf. Perhaps Toronto's other role players will settle in when they return home following a win.
The 76ers are six-point underdogs, according to the betting line at OddsShark. The total is 211.5.
Philadelphia might be the right pick against the spread, but Leonard makes Toronto the safer bet to win outright.
Prediction: Toronto over Philadelphia, 104-100
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