Tusk has promised to unblock billions of euros in EU aid that have been frozen because of long-standing tensions
Tusk has promised to unblock billions of euros in EU aid that have been frozen because of long-standing tensions AFP

The Polish parliament on Monday is expected to vote out a populist cabinet and approve a pro-EU government led by former European Council president Donald Tusk, ushering in a new era for the country.

Three pro-EU opposition parties that have promised to improve frayed relations with Brussels and introduce liberal reforms won a majority in October 15 elections.

But President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the outgoing government, initially nominated the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party to form a minority government.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will put this cabinet to a confidence vote that he is set to lose.

Parliamentarians would then nominate a new candidate for prime minister and are set to name Tusk, a former prime minister who wants to end eight years of PiS rule.

Tusk's Civic Coalition along with the Third Way and Left parties control 248 seats in parliament out of 460.

The PiS nationalists came first in the elections, winning 194 seats, but fell short of a majority.

Once nominated, Tusk is due on Tuesday to present his programme to MPs who will then hold a confidence vote.

The Tusk cabinet could be sworn in on Wednesday, allowing him to travel to Brussels for an EU summit on Thursday and Friday as the new prime minister.

Tusk has promised to unblock billions of euros in EU aid that have been frozen because of long-standing tensions between Brussels and the outgoing government.

The former prime minister has also said he will restore Poland's credibility in the EU and give it an important voice amid the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine.

Expectations for the new government are running high but the populists will remain very influential even in opposition and have appointed allies to key posts.

"There won't be any miracles" as the new government faces daily battles with PiS which "will continue to fight", Jaroslaw Kuisz, a political analyst, told AFP.

"It will be like going through mud" and quick change is unlikely as PiS leaves "a judicial minefield", he said.

Controversial reforms of the judiciary which the EU said undermined democratic values were at the heart of tensions between PiS ministers and Brussels.

PiS still has allies in the presidency, the central bank and the supreme court, as well as several important judicial and financial state institutions.

It also dominates state media organisations, which have become a government mouthpiece during its rule.

Analysts speak of a "spider's web" woven by PiS by putting allies in influential roles with mandates that will last long into the new government's tenure.

Duda is due to step down ahead of a presidential election in 2025 but he could use blocking tactics between now and then, vetoing legislation.

The head of state gave an insight into his intentions with his nomination for Morawiecki to head the government, giving PiS two more months in power.

Tusk on Friday said PiS has spent its last few weeks in power "wreaking havoc, destroying the Polish state".

Analyst Kuisz said the party has used the time "to reinforce itself institutionally and financially".

PiS has named two former ministers to head up important state financial institutions and new prosecutors.

The president has also approved 150 new judges nominated by a body that was criticised by the European Union as being too heavily influenced by PiS.