KEY POINTS

  • The number of Russian troops lost in the Ukraine conflict could now match the number of Russian deaths in the Afghan war
  • The deaths have fueled anxious parents of Russian troops to join demonstrations across Russian cities protesting against the war in Ukraine
  • Russia has so far banned media from reporting about the invasion of Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin could lose the war in Ukraine should perceptions that his soldiers are dying “unnecessarily” in the conflict spread, a recent report suggested.

Putin first announced the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. Since then, the Russian death toll in the war is estimated to be roughly between 7,000 and 15,000, according to NATO estimates. The figures now match the number of Russian troopers killed in the Afghan war, which lasted over 10 years.

In December 1979, the Soviet Union launched its invasion of Afghanistan, airlifting at least 25,500 soldiers into Kabul, where they met with fierce Afghan resistance and U.S.-provided Stinger missiles. The decade-long war led to the deaths of 15,000 Russian soldiers, which drove Russia out of the country and led to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The deaths in the war against Ukraine are now prompting anxious parents of Russian troops to join demonstrations across dozens of Russian cities protesting against the invasion. The combination of the rising number of deaths and reports of the war could serve as Putin’s weakness.

“Putin's Achilles heel is the perception soldiers are dying unnecessarily. It's why he's tightened reporting laws and swamped Russia with Kremlin propaganda, and it's why the Ukrainian military shows off battlefield gains — like knocking out Russian tanks or captured Russian soldiers — because they know bad press back home is what the Red Army out of Afghanistan,” Nic Robertson, a reporter for CNN, said.

So far, the Russian government has banned media outlets from reporting “fake” news about the war, which includes anything that calls the conflict in Ukraine an “invasion.” Kremlin has also banned the use of several social media platforms, including Facebook and Instagram, for “extremist activities” by allowing posts that call for violence against Russian troops.

Russian state media has also promoted Putin’s views. For example, aerial footage of the besieged city of Mariupol released by CNN showed proof of Russia’s bombing and airstrikes targeting Ukrainian civilians. However, Russian media said the footage showed Ukrainian forces burning down the houses of civilians in an attempt to stop Russian troops.

But despite the state media’s portrayal of the war, there have been reports of low morale among Russian troops. Some have reportedly suffered frostbite on the battlefield, others resorted to shooting themselves in the leg using Ukrainian ammunition to get out of the war.

As of Thursday, Ukrainian forces appeared to have regained control of the area east of Kyiv, reversing the gains of the Russian soldiers.

Russia launched its shock invasion of Ukraine a month ago
Russia launched its shock invasion of Ukraine a month ago AFP / Sergei SUPINSKY