Retail Sales, FOMC, Euro Zone GDP: This Week?s Economic Events

The main event this week is April's retail sales report, which could see some payback after the unseasonably warm weather boosted March's results.

The other highlight will be Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the April 24 - 25 meeting. Economists anticipate a wide-ranging discussion of the tools the Fed may use on both the exit and for additional accommodation. Consumer price index and housing starts data are also due this week.

In Europe, investors will get a look at how the region's economies fared in the first quarter. On the emerging market activity front, 1Q GDP data will be released for Russia, Hungary, Singapore, Israel and Chile.

Below are entries on the economic calendar for May 14 to 18:

Monday

No significant events or releases in the U.S.

Non-U.S.:

E17 - European Union foreign ministers meet in Brussels.

E17 - Euro group meeting.

E17 - April industrial production.

Italy - Final reading on April CPI and HICP.


Tuesday

8:30 a.m. - The drop back in gasoline prices will limit the increase in April's CPI, offsetting a slight increase in food prices. Economists expect headline CPI to edge up 0.1 percent in April, after a 0.3 percent rise in March. This should bring the annual CPI inflation rate down to 2.4 percent, from 2.7 percent, giving some comfort to Fed officials who were expecting inflationary pressure from commodity prices to fade. Nevertheless, there are still few signs of a drop back in core CPI inflation, which will likely rise 0.2 percent in April, keeping the annual rate at 2.3 percent.

8:30 a.m. - Economists expect a weak April retail sales report. Retail sales likely rose 0.2 percent in April, after a 0.8 percent surge recorded in March. Spending was boosted in the winter from extraordinarily warm temperature, which pulled forward activity from the spring. A small gain in auto sales should largely be offset by a decline in gasoline.

8:30 a.m. - Empire State Manufacturing survey for May should show that manufacturing activities in New York State improved to 9.65, from April's reading of 6.6.

9:30 a.m. - Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke (voter) speaks on the housing recovery at the National Association of Realtors Midyear Legislative Meetings and Trade Expo in Washington, D.C.

10:00 a.m. - The NAHB housing index will likely rise to 27 in May from a print of 25 in April. The index fell by three points last month, reversing to January levels. The drop was driven by a decline in the index of buyer traffic, which had jumped higher during the winter. The future conditions index should remain elevated, as builders have become more optimistic about opportunities in certain markets.

10:00 a.m. - Business inventories for March rose 0.4 percent, compared with a 0.6 percent gain in February.

Non-U.S.:

Global - G8 summit (to May 22).

France - Francois Hollande takes office.

E27 -- The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting.

E17 - ZEW economic sentiment index.

E17 - President Hollande meets German Chancellor Merkel in Berlin.

E17 -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

Greece - Preliminary Q1 GDP.

Russia -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

France -- Preliminary Q1 GDP/ Preliminary Q1 non-farm payrolls.

France -- April CPI and HICP.

Germany -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

The Netherlands -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

Italy -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

Portugal -- Preliminary Q1 GDP.

U.K. - March visible trade balance.

Germany - ZEW economic expectations index.

Wednesday

7:00 a.m. - MBA mortgage index for the week ending May 12.

8:30 a.m. - Housing starts will likely rise to 680,000 in April, from 654,000 in March, after falling for the past two months. Economists expect multi-family construction to rebound, catching up to the increase in permits. Single-family starts are likely to only inch higher after plunging more than 9 percent over the prior two months.

9:15 a.m. - Industrial output should increase by 0.6 percent in April after staying flat for two consecutive months. This would bring capacity utilization to 79 percent.

10:30 a.m. - Crude inventories for the week ending May 12.

12:30 p.m. -- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) will speak about the U.S. economy and monetary policy at The Olmstead. The event is titled 'Dialogue with the Fed -- a Conversation with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.

2:00 p.m. - FOMC releases minutes for April 24 - 25 meeting. The minutes may shed some light on the tension between the upgraded economic and policy projections and the unchanged late-2014 forward guidance. It also could reflect concern about downside risks that are not in the baseline projections. Economists will also keep an eye out for more detailed debate over the economic conditions for either more easing or an earlier exit, and how to convey those to the public.

Non-U.S.:

E17 - European Central Bank non-policy meeting.

E17 -- ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on Monetary policy in unconventional times in Frankfurt.

E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks on Monetary policy in unconventional times in Frankfurt.

E17 - Final reading on April HICP.

E17 - March trade balance.

U.K. - Bank of England inflation report.

Germany - Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble speaks on Crisis theme at University of Aachen in Germany.

U.K. - March ILO unemployment rate and April claimant count unemployment.

Japan - Preliminary Q1 GDP.

Thursday

8:30 a.m. - Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 12 should fall slightly to 365,000, from 367,000 in the prior week.

10:00 a.m. - April leading indicators will likely advance 0.1 percent, after rising 0.3 percent in March.

10:00 a.m. - Economists expect the Philadelphia Fed's Business Conditions Index to increase to 11.0 in May from 8.5 in April. While new orders declined in the last report, most respondents expected future business activity to improve.

12:35 p.m. -- St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) speaks to the Rotary Club of Louisville at the Galt House Complex.

Non-U.S.:

Germany/France -- Bank holiday.

Greece -- Last day to form the new government.

Global - International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and World Bank President Robert Zoellick speak at Bretton Woods conference in Washington.

Spain -- Final reading on Q1 GDP.

Singapore - Final reading on Q1 GDP.

Mexico - Q1 GDP.

Friday

No significant events or releases in the U.S.

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Jose Manuel Gonzalez-Paramo speaks on Perspectives from the ECB in London.

Germany - March PPI.

Italy - March industrial orders.

All listed times are Eastern Daylight Time. Dates and times are subject to change.

Source: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Barclays Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.