Rick Santorum 2012: How He Can Win the Republican Nomination [CHART]

Rick Santorum is everywhere in the news these days, between his surge in the polls to controversial statements about abortion and President Obama's faith. If he continues to dominate the GOP primary narrative, there's a good chance the former Pennsylvania senator could win the Republican nomination.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads the race for delegates and primary wins so far, but many Republican leaders still won't rally behind the current front-runner. Conservatives who believe Romney has no core and flip flops on domestic issues like abortion have turned to the Pennsylvania Republican who prides himself on family values and stands out for his strong social conservative stances.

Henry Barbour, the nephew of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour predicts the primary race will be between Romney and Santorum all the way down to the convention.

The GOP primary has been filled, so far, with magical ideas that Ronald Reagan is going to comeback and be our nominee, he said, according to Politico's Mike Allen. I think it's clear that either Gov. Romney or Sen. Santorum is going to be the nominee.

As a former Perry surrogate now backing Romney, Barbour predicts that the business mogul-turned-politician will be facing Obama in November. But the poll numbers have put the Romney--and Obama--campaigns on the offensive against Santorum.

National polls published Monday show Santorum in the lead. A new Gallup poll shows Santorum with an eight-point lead over Romney. According to an average calculated by Real Clear Politics, Santorum has won over the favor of 33.8 percent of GOP voters, ahead of Romney's 28.4 percent.

Santorum continues to sneak up behind Mitt Romney as the race for delegates continues. Six states into the races (not including nonbinding caucuses of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri), Romney has accumulated 123 of 1,144 needed to score the GOP nomination. Santorum currently has 72, Gingrich has 32 and Paul has 19.

Whether or not Santorum's momentum keeps up depends on how he does on several upcoming primaries: Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28, Washington on March 3, and ten other states on Super Tuesday March 6.

Things are looking up for the Pennsylvania Republican in Michigan, although it is Romney's native state. In a Public Policy Polling survey published Sunday, Santorum leads with 37 percent in Michigan, ahead of Romney at 33 percent. New York Times statistician Nate Silver believes Santorum has a 72 percent chance of winning the Michigan primary next Monday.

Santorum also scored big in a Texas poll, weeks ahead of the state's primary on May 29 (at the earliest, since Texas still doesn't have all its congressional maps in place). A University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll puts Rick Santorum in the lead with 45 percent, ahead of Newt Gingrich at 18 percent, Mitt Romney at 16 percent and Ron Paul at 14 percent.

Silver also believes Santorum has a 92 percent chance of winning Ohio and a 50 percent chance of coming out in the lead in Oklahoma, two states a part of Super Tuesday on March 6.

This Wednesday, a GOP debate in Arizona is another opportunity for Santorum to sway both Arizona and Michigan voters ahead of the Monday primaries. According to an American Research Group poll released last Thursday, Romney is in the lead at 38 percent to Romney's 31 percent. Silver predicts that Romney has an 81 percent chance of scoring the state.

Santorum's biggest challenge is proving he is electable. Romney Supporters have long argued that Santroum is too far right and Mitt has a much better chance of beating President Obama in November. As New York Magazine's Jonathan Chait puts it, Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted, social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.

If Santorum manages to overcome Republicans' fears about electability and score Michigan and Arizona, a winner-takes-all primary that does not award delegates proportionately, the Romney campaign will be in a lot of trouble.

I think that what [Santorum] needs to do is dominate the political narrative going into Super Tuesday and the way to do that is to win both Michigan and Arizona, Michael O'Neil of O'Neil Associates told Fox News.