The Russian-Ukraine War Will Add To The Hunger Problem In Nigeria, Kenya, The Philippines

Low-income countries like Nigeria, Kenya and the Philippines had a hunger problem before the Russia-Ukraine war due to food inflation. The war will make matters worse.

Russia and Ukraine are among the world's largest grain producers, with Ukraine being the second-largest supplier of wheat to the United Nations World Food Programme — the food assistance branch of the United Nations.

Grains are a critical raw material for many food products, including bread. The Russia-Ukraine war is very likely to cause production and supply interruptions. That will add to supply chain bottlenecks already present in the world economy as it strives to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. Grain prices have soared in commodity exchanges. Higher prices will be passed on to grain processors and local stores.

The war has given another push to oil prices. This adds to the cost of grain food products through higher transportation expenses. Grain has to be transported to processing factories, and the finished products have to be transported to final sale points.

The problem with soaring food prices is more pronounced in frontier and emerging market economies than in developed economies. This is because income in frontier and emerging market economies is meager, meaning that people spend a more significant percentage of their income on food than those in developed countries. Food inflation has a far more substantial impact than in developed countries. Some of these countries had registered high hunger rates before the war broke out.

Top on a list of these countries compiled by Gallop are Nigeria, Kenya and the Philippines. For instance, 71% of Nigerians said they lacked the money to buy food in the last 12 months, followed by 69% of Kenyans and 68% of Filipinos.

Gallop's list also includes Turkey and Egypt. They cover close to 75% of their grain import needs from Russia and Ukraine, meaning that supply disruptions could worsen.

"It is unclear how long disruptions in the food supply will last, though it has already triggered higher wheat prices around the globe," said the Gallop report. "For the developed world, increased prices for wheat will likely result in painful increases in food prices, but these populations will continue to get by. In the developing world, where populations already struggle to afford food, they may result in substantial additional hardship and instability."

That's the last thing the developing world needs as hardship and instability feed the vicious cycle of corruption, social unrest and a higher cost of living.