Russia's 'Unusual Deployment' In Waters Off Japan A Warning To Its Rivals, Say Analysts

Russia has reportedly deployed an unusually large fleet of warships in waters off Japan, which Tokyo claims is to "show off its capability in concert with what it has been doing around Ukraine."

The 24 warships were spotted in the Japan Sea and south of the Sea of Okhotsk since Feb. 1, reported South China Morning Post.

Japan’s defense minister Nobuo Kishi said a large-scale military exercise by the entire Russian naval fleet at this time of the year was extremely unusual.

He indicated that Moscow wanted to show it was capable of carrying out military operations at both the eastern and western extremities of its territory simultaneously.

However, experts said the presence of the Russian fleet was a "warning" and a "broader message to Moscow’s rivals that its military is prepared for all eventualities."

James Brown, an associate professor of international relations specializing in the Russian Far East, too thinks the move is "very unusual in both its scale and timing."

"Conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk are going to be very testing, in particular, as there will be extremely low temperatures, significant ice cover, and drifting ice, all of which combine to make operations dangerous," he told South China Morning Post.

He added that the deployment could only be connected to the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border. "I see this as being aimed less directly at Japan but more part of a broader mobilization of Russian forces wherever they are stationed as a show of military strength to the US and its allies," he said.

"The priority appears to have been to put as many ships to sea as possible to demonstrate that power, as alongside the destroyers and frigates are supply ships and even a hospital ship," Brown added.

Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of international relations at Tokyo’s Waseda University, said the move seemed to specially target Tokyo. "This is clearly Moscow telling Japan that it should not join the U.S. and European countries in their policies on Ukraine and that it should also resist pressure to impose sanctions on Russia," he said. “The clear message is that the issue of the Northern Territories depends very much on what Japan does.”

Ever since Fumio Kishida became prime minister last year, Japan has been aligning with the U.S. more, worsening the relations between Tokyo and Moscow, which has made the Russians warier of Tokyo.

Japan has also openly supported Ukraine in the recent crisis with Kishida calling up Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reiterate Tokyo's support to the country. Japan also offered to assist Ukraine in the form of loans of at least US$100 million.