Safety-bid Lifts Yen After Former PM Abe Shot

A woman holds Euro banknotes in this illustration taken May 30, 2022. Reuters / DADO RUVIC

The Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar rose in Asia on Friday as investors leapt to safe assets after former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was shot, and as market jitters grew ahead of highly anticipated U.S. jobs data.

Abe was shot on Friday while campaigning, a government spokesman said. His condition was unknown.

The yen rose as much as 0.5% immediately after the news, before steadying around 135.60 per dollar.

"I think the yen is just playing its safe-haven role," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo.

"FX market players (are) pretty much ingrained in the way they trade," he said, instinctively buying dollars and yen on bad news.

The move comes with a broader shift in sentiment on the yen. It fell nearly 16% on the dollar through the first half of 2022, but has lately found support as global growth fears rattle markets, and from the risk of a central bank policy shift.

The euro is seeing no such sympathy and has been sliding towards parity on the dollar as investors worry that an energy crisis brought on by the uncertainty of gas supply from Russia can tip the continent into recession.

The euro is down more than 2% this week and touched a two-decade low of $1.0140 in Asia trade. Its decline has lifted the U.S. dollar index to two-decade highs, and it hovered near those levels at 107.080 on Friday.

"Europe is exposed to large risks around energy dependency, a cost of living crunch on the consumer, and fragmentation risk. This spells euro/dollar lower," said analysts at Citi.

The Australian dollar slipped with the mood on Friday, but seems set to eke out a steady week, with help from a infrastructure-led stimulus program announced in China that traders hope will boost demand for raw materials.

It last sat 0.3% lower at $0.6820. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2% to $0.6167.

Sterling also looks set to have navigated a week of British political chaos relatively well. It is down 0.7% on the week, but held most of a Thursday bounce after Prime Minister Boris Johnson quit, ending uncertainty about his future. [GBP/]

The pound last bought $1.2015 and was on course for its best week in more than two years on the ailing euro.

While surging energy prices look to take the wind out of confidence and growth in Europe, investors have also been worried about the U.S. economy, even though the most recent data has been better than expectations.

U.S. non-farm payrolls figures are the next indicator, due at 1230 GMT, with economists forecasting some 268,000 jobs were added in June.

A stronger figure could allay some recession worries, but would probably add to rate hike bets and could lift the dollar.

"Stronger payrolls gains would underpin expectations for an ever more aggressive Fed policy stance," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Carol Kong in Sydney.

Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin also said that merely meeting expectations would be enough to contribute to talk of "'U.S. exceptionalism' in the face of a global energy shock."

That can keep the dollar well bid, "with euro/dollar parity the most obvious multi-day/week target," he said.

The dollar has also been standing tall in emerging markets, driving several Asian currencies to multi-year lows this week and India's rupee to a record trough. [EMRG/FRX]

Bitcoin has mounted a semblance of a recovery, meanwhile, gaining nearly 14% on the week to $22,000.

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Currency bid prices at 0503 GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar

$1.0153 $1.0161 -0.06% -10.68% +1.0191 +1.0140

Dollar/Yen

135.4700 135.9950 -0.36% +0.00% +136.1400 +135.3850

Euro/Yen

137.55 138.14 -0.43% +5.55% +138.6200 +137.4900