San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints 2019: Prediction ATS, Odds, NFC Playoff Implications

For the first time in the 2019 NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers are not in first place in the NFC West. After losing their lead atop the division in Week 13, the team could see its chances of getting home-field advantage throughout the playoffs take a major hit in Week 14.

The New Orleans Saints are in the driver’s seat for the No.1 seed in the NFC. They’ll host San Francisco Sunday afternoon.

The Seattle Seahawks, Saints and 49ers are all tied atop the standings with a 10-2 record. New Orleans is the top seed because of their early-season victory in Seattle. The Seahawks currently lead the division because they beat the 49ers in Week 10, making them the No.2 seed with a quarter of the regular season remaining.

San Francisco is the No.5 seed, but they are considered by many to be the best of the bunch. The 49ers are 2.5-point underdogs in New Orleans, according to OddsShark. The total is 44.5.

The Baltimore Ravens are the hottest team in football and the AFC’s No.1 seed. They narrowly beat San Francisco at home in Week 13, needing a last-second field goal in order to pull out a 20-17 victory.

The 49ers have only been defeated by top Super Bowl contenders. The same can’t be said for the Saints, who lost to the Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons. L.A. will likely miss the playoffs and Atlanta has already been eliminated from contention.

The NFL’s No.1 defense limited MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson to 105 passing yards. Baltimore was held to a season-low in points after three consecutive 40-point games.

San Francisco leads the league in total yards allowed and opponents’ yards per play. The 49ers have been historic against the pass, surrendering 134.3 yards in the air per game.

Drew Brees is averaging 292 passing yards per game, having missed half the season with a thumb injury. The quarterback is eighth in the NFL with a 104.4 passer rating. He has seven touchdown passes and one interception in his last four games, though he’s only averaging 6.8 yards per attempt.

Brees probably won’t have to be great in Week 14.

The Saints have a top-10 defense, ranking 10th in yards allowed and eighth in opponents’ yards per play. New Orleans has given up an average of 18.4 points over the last nine games. Only five teams have allowed fewer points per game over the course of the season’s first 13 weeks.

Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown two touchdown passes, three interceptions and an average of 228.3 yards per game in matchups with the three-best defenses (Ravens, Rams, Steelers) on the 49ers’ schedule. He had a season-low 66.2 passer rating in a loss to the Seahawks.

San Francisco’s second-ranked rushing attack has led the way in most of its victories. New Orleans is third against the run, allowing just 88.6 yards per game on the ground.

New Orleans found itself in a similar situation in Week 9 the 2018 regular season. They hosted Los Angeles in an NFC Championship preview. The Saints won by 10 points and ultimately secured the conference’s No.1 seed.

Since suffering their first loss in Week 2, New Orleans’ only defeat was a fluky 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta. The Saints are averaging 28.3 points over their last six games, including a 36-point performance on the road against a very good Chicago Bears’ defense.

The Saints don’t make mistakes that cost them games. They are tied for second in the NFL in turnover differential.

San Francisco could lose a second-straight heartbreaker to one of the league’s best teams.

Prediction: New Orleans over San Francisco, 23-17