Scientists Predict Earth’s Population To Shrink In 50 Years

A team of scientists predicted that the global population would drastically decline in about 50 years. Although a smaller population will be good for the environment, scientists warned of its effects on the global economy.

The study regarding the global population was carried out by scientists from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the University of Washington. It was published in the online journal Lancet.

For the study, the scientists used computer models that are based on current trends in fertility, mortality and migration. They also used data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Study to analyze the different population trends in various countries.

Through their analysis, the scientists learned by the 2060s, Earth’s global population will increase by two billion. Specifically, the scientists predicted that Earth’s current population of 7.8 billion would jump to 9.7 billion in 2064. However, the scientists stated that Earth’s population would begin to decrease a decade later.

Before the century ends, the scientists predicted that the global population would be at 8.8 billion.

Although this figure doesn’t seem very significant, it is drastically lower than the other estimate of 12.3 billion by 2100. During the decline, the scientist claimed that certain countries such as Japan and Italy would lose as much as half of their population.

In various reports, overpopulation has been cited as one of the main issues on Earth. According to the reports, the growing number of people on Earth is taking a huge toll on the environment and natural resources.

Unfortunately, a shrinking population doesn’t automatically mean that humans will be able to live comfortably in the future. As noted by the scientists, although a smaller population will be good for the environment, it will have detrimental effects on the global economy.

“While population decline is potentially good news for reducing carbon emissions and stress on food systems, with more old people and fewer young people, economic challenges will arise as societies struggle to grow with fewer workers and taxpayers, and countries' abilities to generate the wealth needed to fund social support and health care for the elderly are reduced,” biostatistician Stein Emil Vollset of the IHME and lead author of the study said in a statement.