SEC Will Not Play 'Kingmaker,' Might Approve Spot Bitcoin ETFs This Year: Analyst

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not play "kingmaker" on spot Bitcoin ETF approvals and is probably ready with a decision to approve the filings this year, a seasoned ETF analyst said.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart gives a "conservative" deadline for the highly anticipated spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications.

Seyffart said he and fellow Bloomberg analysts think the odds for Bitcoin ETF approvals by the end of 2023 is 75%, adding that the SEC might approve multiple filings at once.

"We're still at 75% by the end of the year but we think um basically one thing that goes into all this is we think the SEC is going to try to allow most if not all of them to launch on the same day," Syeffart said in an interview with Paul Barron on the latter's YouTube channel. "They're not going to play kingmaker."

ARK Invest and 21 Shares' spot Bitcoin ETF application is set to receive a final decision from the SEC on Jan. 10, 2024.

Last month, Seyffart and Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said ARK 21's application has a 90% chance of getting approved by January.

During the latest interview, Seyffart mentioned that instead of approving or denying each application, the financial regulator might approve multiple filings at once.

He said the SEC is not likely to deny the application of ARK by Jan. 10 and then approve all the other applications in March 2024 — the deadline for several other spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including that of BlackRock. The regulator might make a preponed decision as early as November or December.

"I think the SEC is going to try to find these like angles and areas where they can allow a whole bunch to launch at the same time," the ETF analyst said, noting that the approvals could happen in "November" and "there's also a period in December."

Seyffart's latest statement aligned with what ARK Invest founder, CEO and CIO Cathie Wood said in August about the SEC's approach in approving the spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

"I think the SEC, if it's going to approve a Bitcoin ETF, will approve more than one at once," Wood said in an interview at the time.

Bitcoin was trading in the green zone at $35,303.37 as of 5:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday, with a 24-hour trading volume up by 39.30% at 18,512,537,086. It represents a 3.5% spike in the last 24 hours and a 2.5% gain over the past seven days.

Data from CoinMarketCap revealed that Bitcoin's total circulating supply stands at 19,536,425 BTC, with its value up by 1.50% at a market cap of $689,934,386,351.