Fico's victory could spell a foreign policy U-turn in the EU and NATO member nation
Fico's victory could spell a foreign policy U-turn in the EU and NATO member nation AFP

Slovak ex-premier Robert Fico, whose Smer-SD party is tipped to win the snap election on Saturday, is a former Communist Party member who may sway his country's foreign policy in favour of the Kremlin.

Just days ahead of the vote -- which follows the collapse of a fragile anti-graft coalition -- Smer-SD has topped polls with around 20 percent backing, making Fico the favourite to retake the top job after a five-year break.

His victory could spell a foreign policy U-turn in the EU and NATO member nation of 5.4 million people, which has provided substantial aid to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022.

Fico, who once hailed Slovakia's adoption of the euro as a "significant historic decision", is now openly taking aim at the EU, NATO and war-ravaged Ukraine in a bid to woo far-left and far-right voters.

"The war in Ukraine originated in 2014 when Ukrainian fascists were killing civilian victims of Russian nationality," the 59-year-old said in a recent video, repeating inaccurate and unproven Russian claims.

"It is in our vital interest to have good relations with every country in the world, including the Russian Federation," he added, labelling his pro-western opponents as "warmongers".

He also said he would not allow the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin under an international warrant if he ever came to Slovakia.

In a recently published book called "Fico: Obsessed with Power", Slovak sociologist Michal Vasecka said Fico "definitely appreciates Putin's authoritarianism".

"At the same time, his relationship to Russia is historically determined by the socialist motto 'With the Soviet Union for Eternity'," he added.

A lawyer by profession, Fico launched his political career in the Communist Party just before the 1989 Velvet Revolution saw the former Czechoslovakia dissolve, ushering in capitalism and democracy.

The no-nonsense Fico burnished his EU credentials as Slovakia's representative to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg from 1994 to 2000.

During that time, he was overlooked for a ministerial post by the Democratic Left Party (SDL) -- the Communist Party's political heir -- in 1998.

He unceremoniously quit the party the following year to set up his own, the Smer-Social Democrats (Smer-SD).

The gamble paid off in 2006 when Smer-SD scored a parliamentary landslide, catapulting Fico into the prime minister's seat two years after Slovakia joined the European Union.

The leftist leader forged a coalition with the far-right Slovak National Party (SNS), which shares his staunch anti-refugee rhetoric and populist leanings.

Fico shrewdly capitalised on the global financial crisis in 2008 to bolster his popularity by refusing to impose austerity measures.

Slovakia's 2009 eurozone entry crowned Fico's first four-year stint as prime minister, but elections in 2010 sent him back to the opposition as he failed to form a coalition despite coming out on top.

He later scored a landslide win in a 2012 snap election following the fall of a centre-right coalition amid corruption allegations.

Fico, whose Smer won a majority in parliament, suffered a blow in 2014 when Andrej Kiska, a philanthropist and political novice, beat him to the Slovak presidency.

When the refugee crisis swept Europe in 2015, Fico took a tough stance on migrants, refusing to "give rise to a distinct Muslim community in Slovakia" and slamming the EU's quota programme to redistribute refugees.

Smer went on to win the 2016 election, but that stint as premier ended two years later following the murders of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee, who were found shot dead.

The crime sparked a wave of anti-government sentiment across Slovakia as Kuciak uncovered links between the Italian mafia and Fico's government in his last article published posthumously.

An election in 2020 saw an anti-corruption coalition take power, but Fico retained his seat in parliament.

Born on September 15, 1964, Fico has shrugged off "populist" and "demagogue" labels.

Fluent in English, he is known to enjoy fast cars and football.

He is married to lawyer Svetlana Ficova with whom he has a son, Michal, although Slovak media have reported the couple has separated.

Fico's favourite saying is "patience always brings red roses".