The Slow Death of Research in Motion, BlackBerry

Perspective is a curious character. One person's positive can be another person's negative. Such is the case with the opinion of Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette regarding Research in Motion, maker of BlackBerry products.

Faucette offers in a research note some valuable perspective on Research in Motion, which trades on the NASDAQ under the symbol RIMM. Acknowledging that his firm has been quite negative of RIMM for a long time, Faucette writes that the firm believes that it may be time to lift our foot. A little. For a while.

The sentiment is hardly bullish. Not even close. It's just that Crest writes about RIMM in a less-harsh manner.

Persistent declining service revenue isn't likely to materialize until the May quarter at the earliest, he writes.

Faucette also notes that RIMM is trading below book value, estimated at $18.92 per share. On Thursday, RIMM was trading down 3.43 percent to $17.43, near a 52-week low. He's not making a buy recommendation, but rather noting why some investors may see some reasons to take renewed interest in the stock from a value perspective.

But the insight, which seems on target, points a rather gloomy picture for Research in Motion beyond the short-term. Losing marketshare to Apple's iPhone and multiple smartphones that run on Google's Android system at a fast clip, the Canada-based company seems to be dying a slow death. Research in Motion was also recently stung by a global services outage that halted email and messaging for millions of global customers for one to three days except for the Asia Pacific region, which was not impacted.

How fast the ultimate demise comes about seems to be the question at hand.

Faucette makes the astute observation that at some point in the nearer-term future Research in Motion will see its earnings power collapse because the company will lose its ability to monetize its subscriber base.

For value investors, such sentiment may offer buying opportunity if they are game for the risk potential. But the real value in what Faucette offered comes from the portrait of harsh reality. The picture is rather clear, revealing that Research in Motion is dying, but the company has several quarters or more to live a reasonable and active life.