Sobering Study On Coronavirus Forced British Government To Toughen Measures

On Monday, the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has shut down social life in the fifth largest economy in the world. He also asked those who are more than 70 years old with existing health problems to go on self-isolation. The tough approach to the virus outbreak came as a result of a study painted a bleak picture of the future.

The modeling study, which was conducted by a team headed by Neil Ferguson, used recent data collected from Italy where the highly-infectious COVID-19 pandemic surged in recent weeks. Ferguson is a mathematical biology professor at Imperial College London.

A Gloomy Study

Ferguson’s team made comparisons to the likely impact of the coronavirus pandemic with the distressing 1918 flu outbreak. They concluded that without mitigating measures at all, the outbreak might have caused over 500,000 deaths in the UK and another 2.2 million in the US.

Even with the previous plan of the government to control the outbreak, it would have resulted in 250,000 deaths, with health systems becoming overwhelmed several times over. Government’s previous virus containment measures include home isolation of suspected COVID-19 cases, but such did not cover restrictions on wider society.

With the new measures outlined, which now include extreme social distancing and asking people to avoid pubs, theaters, and clubs, the curve and peak of the pandemic may be flattened. This is the conclusion of the scientists who conducted the study.

Decision At A Crossroad

According to Azra Ghani, the co-leader of the study and a professor of infectious disease epidemiology, also at Imperial, the pandemic is going to place huge pressure on society. This is not only in terms of health but also in economic terms.

Tim Colbourn, a University College London expert in global health epidemiology, said that the study’s projections signal hard times ahead. He said that the results of the study are sobering.

A Change In Direction

According to sources involved in the decision to toughen up measures, the study helped change the position of the British government. The government said it had fast-tracked its plans upon the advice of experts and that the tough new measures had always been part of the action plan of the government.

The source also said that the government continues to follow the science and has always acted on the advice of experts. This is why it was decided to impose new and more substantial measures earlier than originally planned.