Employment growth has either stalled or reversed entirely in states hit the hardest by recent surges in COVID-19. According to data collected by the firm Homebase, fewer people reported to work in these states last week compared to early June, when optimism was high for a return to normalcy.

“Areas that have seen a spike in coronavirus cases are seeing declines in business activities, although the declines are not as steep as during the first wave of cases,” the firm explained.

Comparing data on employees working from July 19 to the same data from June 14, CNBC noted that six states where the number of people working had declined by 5%. This included states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona, where over-eagerness to reopen their economies and return citizens to work has led to the worst surges in coronavirus cases in the country. By comparison, California, which has also seen an increase in cases, has seen its recovery plateau rather than backslide.

Homebase reports that as of July 19 the number of employees worker at small or medium businesses was down by 23% compared to pre-pandemic levels. Its data does not include larger businesses, so it might not necessarily be indicative of the economy as a whole.

In line with this data from Homebase are the continued trends in unemployment claims, with the biggest increases coming from states hit hard by recent surges in cases.

“The vast majority of the pickup in both initial and continuing claims came from recent covid hotspot states, such as Florida (+62k initial / +308k continuing), Georgia (+31k / +166k), and California (+23k / +216k),” Deutsche Bank explained. “Demonstrating that the recent leveling off we are seeing in some of the high frequency data on mobility, small business activity and restaurant seatings in response to the virus flare-ups are beginning to impact the labor market.”

The bank further explained that while recovery statistics gave hope to many in May and June, significant slowdowns or reversals in these employment trends in July and August could severely dampen hopes for the immediate future.

A face mask sign on the door is the first thing visitors to the Texas Rangers training facility in Dallas see as they enter Globe Life Field.
A face mask sign on the door is the first thing visitors to the Texas Rangers training facility in Dallas see as they enter Globe Life Field. GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / TOM PENNINGTON
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