Statistician Reveals His Secret To Predicting Oscar Winners

With the 92^nd Academy Awards ceremony fast approaching, many are wondering who will inevitably win? It’s one of the biggest nights in the entertainment business, yet one man can seemingly peer into the future by predicting which films may make it out on top. His name: Ben Zauzmer.

In an interview with Entertainment Weekly, Zauzmer promotes his new book, “Oscarmetrics: The Math Behind the Biggest Night in Hollywood,” and discloses how exactly he generates his Oscar predictions.

“I gather data on all of the potential contenders in over 20 categories and how they did at previous award shows, and how those categories have played out in previous years,” he said. “And I use all of that data to calculate the probability that each of this year’s nominees wins the Oscars. And then I also write articles about this, I analyze it, I watch the movies, I add some color to the numbers, so it’s not just a dry recitation of statistics.”

Zauzmer uses Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores, as well as Golden Globe and other award show winner lists, in generating a vast list of contingent data. From there, Zauzmer collates what he calls “weights,” or the best predictors in a single category, for which he applies in narrowing down his Oscar predictions.

“The ones that have done a better job of predicting the Oscars get more weight, according to various statistical formulas,” he explained.

Though few may have heard of him, the mathematician’s findings have appeared in numerous publications, from The Hollywood Reporter to The New York Times, despite Oscar predictions being his side hobby. Zauzmer works for the LA Dodgers as a baseball analytics manager.

The Oscars 2020 race may seem daunting, with some top-notch contenders weighing in on the probable Academy Awards nominations, like Quentin Tarantino’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” Netflix’s “Marriage Story,” and the South Korean hit “Parasite.” Yet, Zauzmer has already easily narrowed down the possibilities by way of his own gut feelings.

“It’s looking right now like a bit of a race between ‘The Irishman’ and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,’ in terms of who’s getting those key nominations from the groups that have already announced their nominees at least.” He added, “And then you’ve got a number of movies that have been getting almost all of the requisite nominations. So ‘Parasite’ and ‘Marriage Story’ and ‘Jojo Rabbit’ and ‘Joker,’ all of these movies are kind of hovering around that top tier.”

Watch the 92nd annual Academy Awards ceremony on Feb. 9 on ABC.