Steelers vs. Bengals 2018 Prediction: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Should Upset Cincinnati

If the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2-1) want to successfully defend their AFC North title, they probably need to win in Week 6. Sitting in last place, the Steelers will be on the road against the first-place Cincinnati Bengals (4-1).

Pittsburgh has no division wins in two tries, having tied the Cleveland Browns in the season opener and lost to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. Can the Steelers defeat a team that they’ve dominated in recent years?

The Steelers currently boast a six-game winning streak against the Steelers. They’ve defeated Cincinnati in nine of their last 10 tries. Pittsburgh is 17-6-1 against the spread in their last 24 games against Cincinnati, according to OddsShark. The Bengals are 3-11-1 against the spread in their last 15 home games against the Steelers.

Cincinnati is a two-point home favorite, per the latest betting odds at OddsShark. The total is 52.5.

It isn’t just the trends that suggest Pittsburgh is primed to leave Cincinnati with a victory. The Steelers appear to be turning things around after an unimpressive start, while the Bengals might not be quite as good as their record indicates.

Despite Le’Veon Bell’s absence and Antonio Brown’s frustrations, the Steelers still have one of the NFL’s best offenses. They are seventh in total offense and fifth in points per game, only struggling against Cleveland and Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed fewer yards per play than anyone. The Browns are seventh in opponents’ yards per play, and only one Cleveland opponent scored more points against the Browns than the Steelers.

The issue for Pittsburgh has been defense. The unit won’t finish the season among the league’s best like it did in 2017, but it is certainly improving after a horrible start. The Steelers rank in the middle of the pack in opponents’ yards per play over the last three weeks, even though all three of those opponents currently rank in the top 11 in points scored.

The Steelers held the Atlanta Falcons to 17 points in Week 5. Atlanta had previously looked unstoppable on offense, scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. The Falcons put up 36 points on the Bengals in a Week 4 loss.

T.J. Watt is tied for the league-lead with six sacks, and he could be in Andy Dalton’s face for much of Sunday’s game. Dalton has a career 77.2 passer rating in 14 games against Pittsburgh.

The Bengals are one of four teams that have scored more points than the Steelers. Dalton has played well with A.J. Green and Joe Mixon in the lineup, but Cincinnati won’t have one of their most dangerous weapons. Tight end Tyler Eifert will miss his second straight game after suffering a season-ending injury.

Cincinnati’s offense largely struggled in Week 5 when Eifert missed his first game. The Bengals were held to three points over the first three quarters at home against the Miami Dolphins. Cincinnati won 27-17, though 14 of those points came off turnovers that were returned for touchdowns. Miami doesn’t exactly have an elite defense, ranking 18th in yards allowed per play and 22nd in total yards allowed.

Roethlisberger committed five turnovers in Week 1 when Pittsburgh tied Cleveland. He hasn’t turned the ball over more than once in any game since.

If the Steelers can protect the football, they’ve got a great chance to steal one in Cincinnati and take one step closer toward the top of the AFC North.

Prediction: Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, 24-17