Sultan Qaboos Of Oman Dies At Age 79, Successor Not Yet Known

The Sultan Of Oman, Qaboos Bin Said, the longest serving leader in the Middle East, died on Friday at the age of 79.

Over his nearly half-century reign the sultan transformed his tiny country from a poverty-wracked isolated backwater into a wealthy modern oil state. He invested billions of dollars of oil revenues into infrastructure and a well-trained military.

The cause of death was not disclosed but a recent report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said the sultan suffered from “diabetes and a history of colon cancer.”

Oman’s state news agency ONA stated that Qaboos died after “a wise and triumphant march rich with generosity that embraced Oman and extended to the Arab, Muslim and entire world and achieved a balanced policy that the whole world respected.”

Oman was a key western ally in the turbulent Persian Gulf.

Qaboos kept an independent foreign policy and refused to take sides in most disputes in the Persian Gulf, including the contentious battle between Saudi Arabia and Iran. During the Iran-Iraq war he maintained ties with both Tehran and Baghdad. After the 1979 hostage crisis in Iran, Oman kept good relations with both the U.S. and Iran.

He also maintained ties with Egyptian President Anwar Sadat after Cairo signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

In 2013 Oman mediated secret negotiations between the Americans and Iranians that led to a nuclear deal two years later.

Qaboos even reached out to Israel – in October 2018 he met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on a visit to Oman.

“We do not have any conflicts and we do not put fuel on the fire when our opinion does not agree with someone,” Qaboos told a Kuwaiti newspaper in 2008.

But during Arab Spring in 2011 Oman did experience some turmoil with marches by thousands of people calling for more jobs, higher wages and an end to corruption. Security forces used tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition against the protestors, killing two. The demonstrations led the sultan to remove several ministers accused of corruption and create more public sector jobs. Otherwise he maintained his iron grip on the country.

The British-educated Qaboos seized power in a palace coup in the summer of 1970 after deposing his father with help from Britain.

“Yesterday, Oman was in darkness,” Qaboos said following the coup. “But tomorrow, a new dawn will rise for Oman and its people.”

Qaboos then took an active role in his government, defeated Dhofari rebel groups and embarked on a massive campaign to modernize the sultanate which had resembled a repressive, medieval state under his father.

Eventually Qaboos created a written constitution, formed a parliament and gave his people limited freedoms. But Qaboos had a strong grip on power and allowed no dissent.

The sultan also served as prime minister and minister of defense, finance and foreign affairs, and even as governor of the central bank.

“Holding all these positions in government probably sort of constrained his country in the sense of developing senior leadership,” said Gary A. Grappo, a former U.S. ambassador to Oman.

However, it remains unclear who will succeed Qaboos although according to custom he has reportedly written the name of his successor in a sealed letter. The unmarried Qaboos had no children and never publicly name his heir.

“The appointment and blessing of a successor by the sultan while alive would have been a huge service to Oman,” said a local diplomat.

According to a 1996 statute the ruling family of Oman could also select a successor within three days of the throne becoming available – meaning a new ruler could be chosen on Monday. But if they are unable to agree on a successor a group of military and security officials, supreme court chiefs and other senior officials will place a person in power appointed by the sultan in the letter he wrote prior to his death.

"I imagine that the succession itself will be a smooth process within Oman," said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of Rice University's Baker Institute in Texas. "Sultan Qaboos had such charismatic authority and became so synonymous with Oman as a modern nation-state that it will naturally be difficult for any successor to replicate that, at least at the beginning."

Reportedly one of the sultan’s three cousins -- Culture Minister Haitham bin Tariq Al Said; Deputy Prime Minister Asaad bin Tariq Al Said; and Shihab bin Tariq Al Said, a former Oman Navy commander – will be the most likely successor.

“I have already written down two names, in descending order, and put them in sealed envelopes,” Qaboos said in a 1997 interview about his succession plan.

There are now concerns about what kind of foreign policy the new ruler of Oman will take.

“Maintaining this sort of equidistant type of relationship is going to be put to the test," said Grappo. "Whoever that person is is going to have an immensely, immensely difficult job. And overhanging all of that will be the sense that he's not Qaboos because those are impossible shoes to fill. “You can see the sultan's fingerprints. They're just everywhere.”