Suns vs. Bucks Game 5 Prediction: Odds Of Phoenix Or Milwaukee Taking 2021 NBA Finals Lead

The 2021 NBA Finals has turned into a best-of-three series with the Phoenix Suns and Milwaukee Bucks tied at 2-2. The Bucks were the better team at home with two straight victories in Milwaukee, and now it’s the Suns’ turn to take care of business in their arena when the series shifts back to Phoenix Saturday night for Game 5.

The road team is 0-4 in the NBA Finals, and the odds suggest that trend will continue. Phoenix is a -184 betting favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, and the point spread is 4.5 points. Milwaukee has +154 odds to pull off the upset.

It’s possible that the Bucks have the formula to defeat the Suns after falling into an early 0-2 series hole.

Milwaukee is leaning more heavily on its smaller lineup. Brook Lopez went from averaging 25.5 minutes in Game 1 and Game 2 to 20 minutes per game in Game 3 and Game 4. Pat Connaughton has been on the floor in crunch time, and he hit a few key threes that helped catapult the Bucks past the Suns 109-103 Wednesday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 36.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.7 blocks over the last three games. The two-time MVP appears to have recovered from the hyperextended knee he suffered in the conference finals.

Chris Paul’s 32-point performance in the series opener feels like a lifetime ago. The point guard has struggled mightily since Jrue Holiday took the assignment of guarding him in Game 2. Paul had 15 turnovers in Games 2-4. The 36-year-old totaled 15 turnovers in the nine games prior to this latest stretch.

Paul played so poorly in Game 4 that Phoenix lost in spite of Devin Booker’s 42 points on 60.7% shooting. Khris Middleton had 40 points of his own. The Suns have virtually no chance when Middleton is that much better than Paul.

That could all change very quickly, especially in Phoenix, where the Suns have won 80% of their games. The Buck went just 20-16 on the road in the regular season, and they are 3-6 away from Milwaukee in their last nine playoff games.

In five of those nine games, Middleton had more field-goal attempts than points. In his last six road games, Holiday is shooting 32.1% from the field and 9-38 from three-point range.

Deandre Ayton was plagued by foul trouble in Game 3 and only made three shots in Game 4. Ayton could have a much better Game 5.

Most importantly for Phoenix, Paul is bound to play much better Saturday. Anytime Paul has put together a short stretch of bad games this postseason, he’s come back with a vengeance when the Suns have needed it most.

Paul was the unofficial MVP of Phoenix's second-round sweep after a shoulder injury limited him in the first round. Following a pair of poor shooting performances in the conference finals, Paul closed out the series with 63 points, 16 assists and two turnovers in the last two games to eliminate the Los Angeles Clippers.

Expect a bounce-back performance from both Paul and the Suns in Game 5.

Prediction: Phoenix over Milwaukee, 115-105