Super Bowl 2017 Picks Against The Spread: Patriots vs. Falcons Prediction ATS, Betting Trends, Updated Odds

The Super Bowl LI betting line has remained the same for over a week with the New England Patriots favored by three points against the Atlanta Falcons. Nearly $5 billion is expected to be bet on the game in the United States, via ESPN’s Darren Rovell, and gamblers will be looking at countless factors in order to make the right pick.

Favorites have the slight edge overall, going 25-23-2 against the spread in 50 Super Bowls, though recent history suggests the Falcons might come out on top in Houston. Not only have underdogs covered the spread in the last five NFL Championship games, but they’ve won outright every time.

New England’s Super Bowl history in the Brady-Belichick era also suggests that the Falcons can pull off the upset, or at least keep the game within a field goal. In four trips to the game as the favorite, New England has won two titles but lost against the spread every time. The Patriots beat both the St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks as underdogs.

The Patriots were the NFL’s best team in the 2016 season with a 14-2 record, and they continued that dominance into the 2017 playoffs with two blowout victories. But in recent seasons, the team hasn’t performed nearly as well as small favorites. According to OddsShark, New England has gone 4-9 against the spread and straight up in their last 13 games when favored by between two and four points.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has thrived when put in the position of being a small underdog. The Falcons have won seven in a row straight up and against the spread when getting between two or four points at sportsbooks.

With arguably the best quarterback and head coach in NFL history, the Patriots have put together one of the best dynasties in American sports. Much of the public will be unwilling to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, assuming they will take care of a team that has never won a Super Bowl.

There are a few trends that indicate New England will win their fifth title. The Patriots are 19-9-2 against the spread in their last 30 games as a favorite, and New England has covered the spread in each of their last seven games. The Patriots enter Super Bowl LI on a nine-game winning streak, and they’ve looked largely unbeatable with Brady playing alongside the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense.

The Falcons haven’t had much success in their franchise’s history, but that won’t matter much Sunday. Matt Ryan will likely go on to win the MVP award, and Atlanta’s historically effective offense should be able to keep pace with Brady and Co. The over/under of 59 is the highest in Super Bowl history, and the final score has a chance to go well past that total.

As good as New England’s defense has been, the unit hasn’t been tested much this season. The Patriots haven’t faced a quarterback that even ranks in the top 10 in passer rating, while Ryan leads the NFL in that category.

Ryan has been terrific in almost every game, posting a triple-digit passer rating 14 times and helping Atlanta score at least 23 points on all but one occasion. The Falcons’ offense has been able to move the ball no matter the opposition, and the Patriots’ defense will be hard-pressed to slow them down.

The Falcons are 6-2 against the spread and straight up when facing teams with a winning record, and Sunday could be another win for Atlanta against top competition.

Prediction ATS: Atlanta, over 59 points