Super Tuesday 2020 Polls: Biden To Win Most Southern States

Former vice president Joe Biden knows history. He's well aware the last three Democratic Party presidential nominees -- Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton -- had to win, and did win, South Carolina first en route to their bids for the White House.

Biden won South Carolina in resounding fashion Saturday, mainly on the strong support of African American voters. A new forecast by FiveThirtyEight taken after South Carolina shows him with enough momentum to win six of Super Tuesday states, all of them in the South. Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, are only 1% apart in Texas with Sanders at 49%. The same forecast shows Sanders the outright leader in seven Super Tuesday states.

The list of Super Tuesday states include Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.

Biden leads in six Southern Super Tuesday states and tied for the lead with Sanders in one state (Texas), as of Monday morning.

The percentage chance of Biden winning are: 77% in North Carolina, 48% in Virginia, 61% in Tennessee, 79% in Alabama, 49% in Oklahoma and 39% in Arkansas. He also has 48% in Texas against 49% Sanders, which is well within the margin of error.

In contrast, Sander's chances of winning stands at 91% in liberal California, 41% in Virginia, 63% in Massachusetts, 85% in Colorado, 87% in Utah, 67% in Maine and 99% in Vermont, his home state.

Despite these estimates, FiveThirtyEight also predicts the most likely outcome after Super Tuesday is no single candidate will win a majority of pledged delegates. Super Tuesday will see the awarding of 1,357 of a total 3,979 pledged delegates. A candidate needs 1,991 delegates to clinch the party's presidential nomination.

FiveThirtyEight also said that as of Sunday, 11:10 a.m. ET, there is a 3 in 5 (59%) chance no one will win a majority, up from 1 in 2 (52%) before South Carolina. Sanders has a 1 in 4 (27%) chance of getting a majority. Biden has a 1 in 7 (14%) chance of getting a majority, which is surprisingly little changed from where he stood before South Carolina (1 in 6, or 16%). All other candidates have few paths to the nomination, said FiveThirtyEight.

Biden's win in South Carolina was crushing and among the most one-sided in recent American political history. With 100 percent of precincts reporting, Biden took 48% of the vote in South Carolina against Sanders' 20%. The fallout from Biden's historic win immediately saw two other candidates drop out of the race: billionaire Tom Steyer on Saturday and former mayor Pete Buttigieg on Sunday.

Only Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-MN; billionaire Mike Bloomberg and Sanders stand in his way. Should FiveThirtyEight's forecast ring true, Super Tuesday might mean the end of the line for Klobuchar. Steyer came in third in South Carolina with 11%; Buttigieg took 8%; Warren, 7%; Klobuchar, 3%; and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-HI, 1%.

FiveThirtyEight noted its forecast in South Carolina expected Biden to win big. By big, FiveThirtyEight meant 40% of the vote and Biden exceeded that estimate by eight points.