Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 2023: AFC South Prediction, Odds
The Week 18 matchup between the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars has turned into an unofficial AFC South Championship Game. The rivals will meet in the regular-season finale with the division title on the line. The winner clinches the No. 4 seed in the final playoff picture, while the loser will go home until the 2023 NFL season.
Once in full control of the AFC South, the Titans are significant underdogs to win the division. Tennessee has +215 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to beat Jacksonville on the road in Week 18. The Jaguars have -260 odds to beat the Titans and secure a home game on Wild-Card Weekend.
The Jaguars are six-point favorites.
Week 17 has no bearing on the AFC South race. That's why the Titans allowed Derrick Henry and Jeffery Simmons to sit and recover from injuries in a 27-13 loss against the Dallas Cowboys on "Thursday Night Football." Jacksonville's road game against the Houston Texans Sunday is also meaningless for the final division standings.
The unique situation allowed the Titans to evaluate Josh Dubbs as their starting quarterback. With Ryan Tannehill done for the year, Tennessee gave Dobbs his first career start against Dallas. Malik Willis had gone 1-2 as Tannehill's replacement in the starting lineup.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel said the team would take more time to make a decision regarding its Week 18 starter. Dobbs completed 20-of-39 passes for 232 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The veteran also ran three times for 12 yards.
In his one start, Dobbs had only two fewer passing yards than Willis totaled in his three starts combined. Willis has no passing touchdowns and no 100-yard games in his rookie season. The 23-year-old had his most productive performance in Week 16, throwing for 99 yards along with rushing for 43 yards and a touchdown. Willis also had two interceptions in the 19-14 home loss against the Texans.
There's no mystery regarding Jacksonville's quarterback. Trevor Lawrence has played the best football of his young career since the start of November, allowing the Jaguars to climb back into the AFC South race.
After Week 8, the Jaguars were 2-6 and 3.5 games behind the Titans for first place. Jacksonville entered Week 17 on a three-game winning streak with five wins in their last seven games. Lawrence has 14 touchdown passes and one interception during that stretch.
Jacksonville's winning streak started with a 36-22 win in Tennessee. Lawrence completed 71.4% of his passes for 368 yards and three scores in addition to rushing for a score.
The loss against Jacksonville was Tannehill's last fully healthy game. It also marked the only time during Tennessee's six-game losing streak that the team scored more than 16 points. Since their Week 6 bye, the Titans have reached the 20-point mark in only two games.
Tennessee can make life difficult for Jacksonville's offense. Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson has been lost for the season with a knee injury. After giving up fewer than 20 points in two straight games, the Titans held the Cowboys to 4.9 yards per play. Tennessee has a few extra days of rest to get healthier on defense for the season finale in Jacksonville.
The Titans, however, are probably too weak at quarterback and wide receiver to pull off the upset on the road for the AFC South title.
AFC South Prediction: Jaguars over Titans, 20-17
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