Tesla Earnings: What Do Analysts Expect From The 2nd Quarter?

Electric automaker Tesla (TSLA) will release its second-quarter earnings Wednesday after the closing bell. There have been some varying reactions from analysts.

Barclays on Friday raised its forecast for Tesla’s second-quarter to a loss of 16 cents a share, which is well above its previous estimate of a loss of 71 cents a share.

"The ability of the stock to move higher will really depend on the (sales) guidance," Garett Nelson, an analyst with the CFRA Research firm told Marketwatch. "We are still skeptical they will hit that goal."

Less expensive Model 3 sales have helped make up the difference for slow sales for the Model S and Model X. Tesla in the first quarter of 2019 reported a 31% drop in vehicle deliveries from the previous quarter.

The company was coming off a fourth quarter in which it reached 90,700 deliveries, a quarterly record. Tesla has already released its number of deliveries for the second quarter, which confirmed a new record of 95,200 deliveries.

"The key is cash flow, and people will look for whether they traded profit for volume in Q2," David Whiston, an analyst for Morningstar Research Services, told the Wall Street Journal. "Also, did they get enough [Model] 3 volume to offset the 21% decline in combined S and X sales."

Citigroup analyst Itay Mitchell told clients in a note that investors should heavily scrutinize the company's gross margin number. Gross margin is calculated by taking the difference between the revenue and cost of goods sold and then dividing it by the revenue. The statistic is usually expressed as a percentage.

Mitchell contends that if the percentage is between 21% and 23% it would be a good benchmark for the company, while "anything materially lower would support the bear case on Tesla's profitability and anything higher would support the bull case."

Shares of Tesla are down 23% in 2019 and have lagged behind the S&P 500.