Texans vs. Chiefs 2019 Prediction: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Beat Deshaun Watson, Houston

If the Kansas City Chiefs hosted the Houston Texans in Week 5, Patrick Mahomes and Co. would be favored by close to 10 points. Now that Kansas City is coming off a loss and Houston won this past Sunday, the Chiefs are only favored by 4.5 points in the Week 6 matchup.

It’s not time to jump off the Chiefs’ bandwagon yet. Kansas City remains in a class above every AFC team other than the New England Patriots, making them a good bet to win and cover the spread against Houston.

The Indianapolis Colts were impressive in their 19-13 win over Kansas City, running the ball at will and dominating the Chiefs up front. That doesn’t mean the Texans will be able to do the same in their matchup with the AFC West champs.

Mahomes could be due for a big game after throwing for just one touchdown pass and completing fewer than 50 percent of his attempts over the last two weeks. The quarterback aggravated an ankle injury twice in Week 5, limiting his mobility and hurting his ability to create big plays. He also suffered from his receivers dropping a few potentially big passes.

Tyreek Hill hasn’t played since Week 1. The wide receiver is a game-time decision, but NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has reported that there is optimism Hill will suit up Sunday.

That would be a major boost for the most explosive offense in the NFL.

Deshaun Watson was incredible in Week 5 with five touchdown passes, 426 yards and a perfect passer rating. He might need a similar big game to keep pace with Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Houston’s defense really hasn’t been tested this season. The Texans gave up 30 points to the New Orleans Saints in a season-opening loss. They haven’t faced an offense that ranks in the top half of the league since then.

Watson didn’t face a ton of pressure last week against bad Atlanta Falcons’ defense. Kansas City doesn’t have a good defense, but they should do a better job against a poor Texans’ offensive line. The Chiefs have 11 sacks on the year while the Falcons have just five.

It’s not asking much for the Chiefs to win by a touchdown at home. They had scored more than 25 points in every Mahomes start before Week 5. Expect a new streak to begin in Week 6.

Prediction: Kansas City over Houston, 31-23